Thursday, July 8, 2010

NBA Free Agent Frenzy

Well a week into free agency we now know a couple of things. We know that Dirk and Haywood will remain Mavericks. We know that the West is going to be a little weaker with the Suns and Jazz looking major players. And we now know who the favorites will be going into next year- the new look Miami Heat. Lebron announced this evening that he would join Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade in South Beach and create the greatest trio to ever play on one team. 

Most people are already trying to determine which route the Championship parade will take next June. While the Heat may have the best trio in the NBA, I'm more hesitant to start calling them the odds on favorite just yet. The Heat still have a lot of work to do. The Heat's roster is barren outside of the big 3. They still have Chalmers and Beasley, but they may have to move Beasley to create space to sign Lebron. The entire bench will have to be composed of minimum level guys. The big 3 will have to play 40 minutes a night and carry the team every night to have a chance. 

Honestly, a healthy Lebron, Wade, and Bosh in the Post-season is an extremely scary match-up for anybody; if they are healthy. An injury to any of these guys kills any hope of a championship in my mind. I don't think Lebron, Wade, and a bunch of D leaguers can beat the Lakers or the Celtics or the Mavericks and maybe a few others. Health will be a key component to their hopes of winning. 

I also have serious questions about whether or not Wade and Lebron can co-exist. It will be very interesting to see who takes over in late game situation. It will take longer than most people think for the chemistry on this team to mesh. The worst case scenario for the Heat- A relapse of the 2008 Olympics when neither Lebron or Wade were willing to take over the final game with so many superstars on the court. Kobe eventually decided he wasn't going to let them lose and took over in the 4th quarter. What happens late in games when Lebron thinks Wade is going to take over since, in his own words, "its his team", but Wade thinks Lebrons taking over and neither do. It will be extremely interesting to watch their season progress as they figure out the order of things. 

Now what does this chaos mean to the Dallas Mavericks? Essentially, it means nothing. Obviously it would be a difficult match-up if a 2006 Finals re-match happened, but that's not even worth thinking about at this point. The Mavericks have been very steady this off-season. Not making any headlining moves but doing what they needed to do. Dirk agreed on Saturday to sign a 4 year deal worth $80 Mil, which is $16 Mil under the max deal Dirk could have gotten. Dirk's agreement to take less than what he could have gotten shows a tremendous team first attitude.  Let's just hope the Mavericks can use the extra money to improve. 

Today the Mavericks signed Center Brendan Haywood to a 6 year $55 Mil deal with an agreement that he will be the Starting Center. This was a deal the Mavs had to get done. Haywood is a top 10 Center in the league. He gives the Mavs a athletic, defensive presence in the middle that we haven't had in a very long time. He is an obvious upgrade over Damp and a full year on the team should improve his numbers. 

The Mavericks really don't have to many more options. The guy I wanted, David Lee, is reportedly going to be sent to Golden State in a sign-and-trade deal for Anthony Randolph and Ronny Turiaf. There really isn't much left out there after that. Shaq was an option before the Haywood sign. There's 3-point specialists JJ Reddick and Mike Miller. Their are some intiguing restricted Free Agents in Luis Scola and Tyrus Thomas but don't expect either to move. The only option the Mavs have is to attempt to work out a deal using Dampier's 1 year $13 Mil contract. An expiring contract can be a valuable trade piece in the NBA, and Damp's should have decent value. The key is just finding the right match. 

There are still  a few teams who may look to create more cap room for next year to go after Tony Parker and Carmelo Anthony. The Knicks and Bulls are 2 teams I think could be prime targets for Damp. The Bulls, looking to dump Luol Deng's contract (4 years and about 45 Mil left) could be a possible trade partner as the Mavs aren't going to have cap room available for 2 years anyways. The Knicks could be a possible trade partner but I'm not sure who we would get back that would help us. Anthony Randolph? Ronny Turiaf? Wilson Chandler? I'm not sure I really see a fit there. 

This off-season will be one of the most talked about for many, many years. Unfortunately, the Mavs aren't going to be a main reason why. We re-signed Dirk which, as I wrote in an earlier blog, was pretty much a done deal, and re-signed Haywood which we needed to do. But the fact is we never had a great chance to make a big splash in the free agent market as much as Cuban wanted to. The most important thing for Mavs fans to be watching this off-season is taking place right now in Las Vegas: the continued development of Roddy B and Dominique Jones. 

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