Dirk's future

On Saturday the City of Dallas was sent into a mild panic as a story was released stating that Dirk Nowitzki would be opting out of his contract on the last day of June. The Sports Radio channels were filled with people speculating on what this meant. There are reports that Miami wants him, or maybe even Cleveland. Would the Knicks go after him if they can't woo Amare or Bosh? What would this mean for the future of the Dallas Mavericks?

I listened to some of this talk on the radio, and my opinion is the same as ESPN writer Marc Stein. Dirk isn't going anywhere. Dirk opting out is simply a smart decision on the behalf of Dirk to get a new long-term deal that extends until the last few years of his career. I believe the Dallas Mavericks front office knew this would happen all along and are, according to reports, working on an extension with Dirk as I type this.

There are numerous factors that played into Dirk's apparent decision to opt out. However, there are 2 huge issues that made it a no-brainer for Dirk to become an unrestricted free agent.

1. The NBA's collective bargaining agreement expires at the end of next season. One of the major issues that is expected to be changed in the next CBA is the size of the max contracts that are allowed to be given. This year Dirk can receive a max deal from the Mavericks of $96.2 Mil over 4 years. After the new CBA comes out affecting next year's free agent class, this number could fall significantly. Also, if you're wondering why he has to opt out rather than take his $20 mil this year and sign an extension rather than opting out, there's a monetary reason for that too. Because it is an extension starting next year it would be subject to the new CBA agreement. Even if Dirk agrees to a max extension this year, the league could pass the new CBA and force the contract to be reduced next year. This is reason enough for Dirk to opt out of his contract, but it's only 1 of the major issues.
2. Dirk is making a very simple decision in opting out of his contract come July 1st. The Mavericks are hoping to convince Dirk to take a hometown discount that would allow them to have some more money for going after another player. However, if somebody does step in and offer a max deal for Dirk (which by rule would be less than the max offer the Mavs can make), then the Mavs could still put the money on the table and keep Dirk.

There are scenarios that could result in Dirk leaving. Dirk could get a max offer from the Knicks to team up with another max sign such as Lebron James or Dwayne Wade, and might think that is his opportunity to win a championship. I don't really see that happening though. Dirk loves Dallas. He loves Mark Cuban, and he loves the fans here. As long as the Mavs can convince Dirk that they are in position to be one of the top teams in the West, then Dirk will stay. Expect Dirk to wait to sign until late in the summer to see how other things shake out. It make take a while for that to happen, but when it does, expect Dirk to still be wearing a Mavericks jersey.

P.S. Wouldn't it be nice to have the type of depth this Suns team has. It's incredible. I wonder if they'd consider dealing Dragic?

Small Ball

The Texas Rangers have undergone a serious transformation in regards to their offensive game plan. For many years the Rangers have been a team who've had a prolific offense and lived with the long ball. Ron Washington has slowly incorporated the use of the sac bunt, and the idea of moving runners over in order to create runs. This year Washington has fully introduced the Rangers to the small ball side of baseball. The Rangers are sacrifice bunting in every situation where it might be warranted. For the most part the sac bunts were limited to Andrus (8), Borbon(3), and Treanor(3). But recently the sacrifice's have started coming from odd places. Last week Kinsler laid down a bunt with men on 1st and 2nd and no out. In Friday's game vs the Cubs, Hamilton laid down a bunt with a man on 2nd and no outs.

I am in favor of playing the small ball game when the situation calls for it. My problem with this is that I disagree with when the situation is. I agree with the sac bunt in late game situations in tight games to move runners into scoring position. The Rangers have gotten into a habit of bunting in the early innings with our best hitters at the plate. I don't think this makes sense. Too often the Rangers are giving up outs with some of our best hitters at the plate.

Elvis Andrus is the most common player being called on to sacrifice. Elvis currently has 8 sacrifice bunts on the season. Elvis is currently hitting .312 with a .408 OBP. Since 1980, 6 players have had 8 sac bunts while hitting .300 with a .400 OBP. I think it is reasonable to assume Andrus will have 15 sac bunts or more this year which is 3 more than any other player on that list with the exception of Brett Butler's 24 in 1992 (Lonestarball). This is significant because it shows how rare a guy hitting this well is asked to give up his at bat. Elvis is a guy who is more than capable of making something happen with the bat, and has only 6 DP's in his career. He also strikes out a very low rate. Taking the bat out of Elvis's hands this often is just not a good thing for our team in the long run, especially when it's done in the 4th inning of May game. It's going to cost us runs in the long run.

A big inning early in a game can end a game. A 5 run inning early in a game with the way our pitching staff is going right now can finish a game and save the back-end of the bullpen for another day. Sacrificing to get 1 or 2 runs and win a game 4-2 is nice, but once in awhile, I'd like to see Andrus hit the ball and keep the rally going for Young, Kinsler, and Vlady. I certainly don't want to see Hamilton sacrificing with a man on and no outs in the 4th inning ever! The 4th innings is way to early to know how the game is going. We could play for the one run in a 2-1 game that we end up losing 10-4. In the opening innings it would be wiser, in my opinion, to play for the maximum amount of runs.

The strain all these close games will cause on our bullpen is going to be hard to quantify until later in the season. If we can pull out a few more 5 run wins with some big innings than we can keep Neftali, O'day, and Oliver's innings down. Neftali is a young guy who rarely has pitched on back-to-back nights and I worry about him wearing down if he's having to throw 3 out of 4 nights due to our insistence on winning games 5-4. These close games also minimize the room for error our team has. We have to be a near perfect team in the field and in the pen to win enough close games to make the playoffs.

Close games are going to happen. Playing small ball can, without a doubt, win games, and is an extremely valuable tool to have for a playoff team. I would just like to see us stop giving up outs early in games with guys at the plate who are extremely talented hitters. I don't honestly expect this trend to stop, but I hope to see more swinging away early in games, and saving the bunting for later in the game.

Ranger Bullpen Problems

Last night's 7-6 loss to the A's in 13 innings presented an overview of the way the Ranger's bullpen has been in the early going. The bullpen gave up 4 runs on 9 hits, 2 walks, and threw 104 pitches in 6 innings. The Rangers, at 3 games over .500, have been good in most aspects of the game. We've had excellent SP which has always been a huge problem. We've had a couple injuries that have given us problems, Kinsler and Cruz, and we've had some issues at 1B and C, but we've survived those for the most part. The bullpen however is a more pressing issue. We have a 7 man bullpen right now with essentially only 3 guys being trusted to get outs late in ballgames- Feliz, O'day, and Oliver. Some shuffling will happen soon with the plethora of power relievers waiting in OKC, but let's look at the remaining 4 and what they're chances are of remaining on the roster.

• Frank Francisco- Frank isn't going anywhere. He's a guy who has proven he can get big league hitters out and has a closer mentality. He is definitely struggling early, 5.5 BB/9 with a 6.75 era. He has been one of the biggest disappointments this year, but he will be given ample opportunities to refind his stuff. His biggest issue has been lack of velocity which has cause him to get hit harder, 12.9 H/9 and 2 homers in 13 innings, and a lack of control. He looked to be coming around at the end of April with 6 consecutive appearances without a run and only 3 hits, but he's given up 6 hits in his last 3 innings. Frank needs to get it together as he is vital to the back-end of the bullpen being a strength.

• Doug Mathis- Mathis isn't a guy who is going to be in many close games in the 7th, 8th, or 9th innings but he fills a key role in the bullpen as the long man. He actually has been pretty good with a 3.6 era in 15 innings. Homers have hurt him (3 in 15 innings) and he's giving up 10.8 h/9 which isn't great. He's a guy who probably deserves to stay in the bullpen for the time being but he has options left which makes him a fine candidate to make the trip up I-35 to OKC multiple times this year.

• Dustin Nippert- Nippert is a guy was pretty solid last year, but has been relatively ineffective this year. He's walking more, giving up more homers and more hits than last year so far and his ERA shows it- 6.23. He's been used in different roles this year as he's moved from the long man to a 7th inning guy at times. He has an explosive fastball sometimes reaching 98 MPH, but he hasn't shown good command of it. Nippert is out of options and there is a very slim chance they get him through waivers. The Rangers may end up switching Nippert back to the long man slot at the expense of Mathis due to the lack of options.

• Chris Ray- Chris Ray is a guy who has a nice ERA, 3.07, but hasn't looked great. He's been wild, 5 BB/9, and hasn't struck out anybody, 3.8 K/9. Guys are making good contact against him and he's given up mostly flyballs which is dangerous in the Ballpark. Ray is a guy who has yet to earn Wash's trust and doesn't have much of a role. We've used him in the 7th some but we acquired him hoping he would be a 7th/8th inning power reliever who could come in a get a strikeout. He hasn't done that. With 1 option remaining he is an option to be demoted in the near future.

Ray and Mathis are the two who are being looked at the closest for demotions. The decision will be coming soon too. The Rangers have quite a few options for spots and all the guys are hard throwing arms who have been dominating the minors. Scheppers, Beltre, and Ogando are all in AAA (Scheppers and Ogando recently) have proven they need to be challenged more, and are very close to a big league promotion. All 3 throw regularly at 95 or higher, with Ogando and Scheppers regularly hitting 98. Ogando and Scheppers have received a large amount of national attention early on with their astounding performances and won't need long in AAA. Pedro Strop, who had a cup of coffee last September, is another option, as is Matt Harrison. Harrison sat at 96 in the AFL last Fall coming out of the bullpen and was extremely effective. If Holland proves to be an asset in the rotation, Harrison could fill CJ Wilson's void as a hard throwing lefty that we still haven't replaced.

What this really means is that for the first time in a long time the Rangers have numerous options for pitching. If our current bullpen member don't turn their seasons around soon they will quickly become former bullpen members. It's not a huge stretch of the imagination to imagine a bullpen in October like this: Feliz, Scheppers, Ogando, O'day, Oliver, Francisco, Harrison with 5 of 7 throwing 95 or harder. I remember seasons in the early 90's where we couldn't find 1 guy who could touch 95. Help is coming, and it's coming soon!

What's next for the Mavericks

After falling 4-2 to the Spurs in the first round last week, the Mavs have now lost in the first round of the Playoffs 3 of the last 4 years. Obviously there will be many people in the metroplex calling for ownership to "break up" the Mavs, and to trade Dirk in order to start over the rebuilding process. I disagree with this outlook. I mean, the Mavs just became the 4th team in NBA history to have 10 consecutive 50 win seasons. This is a good team that can be great. I think the Mavs are much closer to a championship right now than people think. I think we have a roster full of guys who can contribute to a championship team. We have an athletic big man who can run the floor, grab rebounds, and dunk the ball with authority (when he plays). We have a superstar who can hit big shots and has proven he can take over ball games. We have an All-star caliber player on the wing who can hit shots and penetrate to the basket who can, on occasion, also take over a game. We have a very exciting young guard who proved in Game 6 that he can be a future star in the league who can execute the most difficult offense in basketball to defend- the pick and roll.

However, there are some serious problems for the Mavericks going forward. It stands to reason that if the Mavs do nothing this off-season there is little reason to expect them to get to much better next year. Changes will come this off-season if for no other reason than Cuban has to do something to get this team deep into the post-season where they belong. Cuban , however, has a tendency to put a premium on big name players and coaches (Kidd, Carlisle). For the Mavs to move up in the NBA standings, Cuban needs to let go of this big name mindset and get the people in here who will get the job done. I have a laundry list of issues the Mavs have but I don't have time to put them all here (Terry's shot selection and offensive schemes). Here are 3 major issues that need to be addressed this off-season for the Mavericks to succeed.


1) The Coaching situation. Anybody who watched the majority of the 1st round series knows that this is a huge issue. Carlisle made numerous personal changes that were simply inexplicable. The decision to start Damp the first 4 games. The unexplainable decision to sit Caron Butler the ENTIRE 2nd half in game 3. Never putting Roddy B in the entire series until Game 6, and have him single handedly bring us back before benching him in the 4th quarter while our lead was squandered away. Playing Jason Kidd 40.5 MPG while he did absolutely nothing on the floor.

Carlisle had me scratching my head throughout the post-season. I feel like Carlisle went into the series saying he was going to win or lose with the guys he's had in Dallas for the length of his tenure and that was just how it was going to be. I can't figure out any other reason why guys like Haywood, Caron, Roddy B, Stevenson (arguably our best perimeter defender) and even Najera sat on the bench watching guys like Kidd, Terry, and Damp play the majority of the time. Carlisle is going to be a guy worth watching for the first part of the off-season to see if he stays head coach of the Dallas Mavericks. I would bet that his track record gets him another year in Dallas, but I'm not so sure that's the best decision for us.

2) The Point guard situation is a complete mess. Jason Kidd is not the player he used to be and I am extremely frustrated by the announcers continuing to call him a superstar and referring to him as a key for the Mavericks. We are a better team without him on the floor. Period. He is one of the worst defenders we have, if not the worst. His offensive contributions come from knocking down an occasional 3-pointer, telling Dirk where to stand for a lob pass, and swinging the ball for a shot for Caron or Jet. Any PG in the league can do this. I understand the intangibles Kidd supposedly brings to the table. The leadership and floor general attitude. He can still be a leader playing 15-20 minutes a game and mentoring our young guards, Beaubois and Barea. But the real issue with Kidd is that I don't know how much of a leader he is or how much he even wants to be in Dallas. He skipped the post game interviews after Game 6 ( not a huge deal IMO), but he also skipped the Mavericks post year team meeting and really hasn't been heard from since the game. This isn't a good thing coming from your "leader". I think it is time to try and sell somebody else, Lakers maybe, on Kidd's strong points and get him out of town. The trade to get him here has been a complete disaster since it happened and there's no point in keeping him just because of his name. If he's willing to accept playing 15 mpg and being a mentor then I'm all for keeping him, but I don't see it happening.

3) Finding Fresh blood. The Mavericks were the oldest team in the NBA Playoffs this year. We need some fresh, young legs to get us running again. Roddy B is a great start. If you watched him in Game 6 you saw some of the same stuff I've seen throughout the year. He's a good long rang shooter, and an explosive driver. He can finish at the rim over the big men and make an occasional nice pass. He's more of a scorer at this point than a full PG but I think that's fine. He's a better fit right now for Jason Terry's role than Jason Terry is. We also need to paying a close eye to Free Agency this year. There are some big name FA's available and I guarantee you Cuban will be calling them. I don't think we realistically have a shot at Lebron or Wade, but there are some names we should keep an eye on. Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh (Dallas native), and David Lee are 3 that I covet badly. All 3 would be huge additions to our team. We also do not have our 1st round pick this year, as it was sent to the Nets as part of the Jason Kidd deal.



The Mavs have been extremely frustrating to watch the last couple of years, but we have a core group of guys that are more than capable of making a long post-season run. Our first priority obviously needs to be trying to resign Dirk and Haywood for the next few years before looking elsewhere. Hopefully Cuban and the Mavs will make the correct adjustments in the off-season that will allow us to reach our full capabilities starting with the coaching and our PG situation.