For the first time ever their will be a World Series game played in the Metroplex. The entire area has been stricken with Ranger fever, and it is great to finally witness. I see the claw and antler shirts in the halls at school and at Walmart shopping and when I go to eat at McDonalds and everywhere else. Temporary shops have popped up on street corners under tents selling shirts, towels, blankets, and car flags bearing the Rangers logos. My professor gave score updates on the board during class, and excused anybody who wished to watch the game from class with no penalty. The DFW area has waited a long, long time for this baseball team to step up and take the city by storm and it has finally happened. I have never seen the stadium with as much energy as Game 1 of the ALCS. I simply cannot imagine the electricity that will be in the stadium tonight. It's going to be one incredible party at the Ballpark tonight.
There is one small downside to the Rangers coming back to the ballpark tonight, and that is the 0-2 series hole the Rangers find themselves in. This is an obvious reason for concern. No team since 1996 has come back down 2 in the Series and won. That being said, it has happened 11 times overall. The Rangers are far from done, and I fully expect them to not go down without a fight.
A lot of things went wrong in San Francisco this week. The defense (4 errors), pitching (12.5 ERA), and offense (3.5 RPG) were all surprisingly sub-par. They did not play the way we have come to expect. They were uncharacteristically sloppy, and looked to be slightly rattled by the atmosphere inside AT&T Park. The Rangers did not look like a championship team out in California.
Thankfully the Rangers now return home for the next 3 games where they were 51-30 during the regular season. The Rangers have been as resilient a team as I have ever seen, and have always been able to bounce back from adversity. With the next 3 at home I could make the argument that the Rangers were in just a precarious situation after 2 games in the ALCS. We were tied 1-1, but the next 3 were in the Bronx where we knew it would be very difficult to win a single game. If the Rangers can overcome the adversity in the Bronx, then they can surely overcome it in their home ballpark.
Tonight the Rangers send Banzai Colby Lewis to the mound in what is a must-win game. Colby Lewis was tremendous in his Game 6 ALCS clinching win against the Yankees. He had masterful command of all of his pitches, and had the Yankee hitters guessing all night. The words "Wow Colby" must have come out of my mouth no less than a dozen times that night at his ability to put pitches where he wanted them. If Colby can come close to replicating that against a weaker Giants lineup (yes, I did watch the first 2 games), then the Rangers will be in a great position to win Game 3.
The Giants will counter Colbyashi with tough lefty Jonathan Sanchez. Sanchez has great stuff, but is incredibly wild. Sanchez had 205 K's with a 3.07 ERA this year, but also led the NL with 96 walks! He is very comparable to CJ, but is even more erratic with his command. If the Rangers can be patient with Sanchez they should be in a position to score runs and knock Sanchez out early. It will be up to the big bats in the middle of the order to get the runs in, but guys like Andrus, Moreland, and Kinsler will be instrumental tonight in getting to Sanchez with their patient approaches.
I expect a completely different Rangers team to show up on the field the next 3 games than we saw in San Francisco. I could go on for hours about the problems I saw in games 1 and 2. Why was Vladdy in the field ever? Why, o why was Feliz not used in the 8th inning of Game 2 when we had to keep it close to give us a chance? Where is Alexi Ogando when its obvious we need somebody who can throw over 87? How did a team who was 17th in the league in runs just score 20 runs in 2 games against a good pitching team? I could go on and on, but I would much prefer to look ahead. Whats done is done. Now the Rangers have to figure out a way to get the next 3 at home. I've always said that in the playoffs you need to take care of business at home and steal one on the road. I still believe that is the case here.
There is obvious reason for concern, but it is not time to panic. Obviously this Ranger team is extremely dangerous and fully capable of swinging this series to their favor very quickly. The next 3 pitching match-ups are, at worst, even, and the Rangers posses the more potent offense. This is still a series, and I believe it is far from over. The Rangers are not a team that will give in easily. I believe this weekend will be an extremely exciting team for Ranger fans. As the first World Series game prepares to take place in the DFW Metroplex tonight, it is time for the Rangers to take care of business.
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Rangers in control
The Rangers opened up a 2-1 lead over the Yankees in the ALCS last night behind another completely dominating effort by staff ace Cliff Lee. Lee continues to baffle opposing hitters in the playoffs as he now holds a 7-0 career post-season record. The media has been claiming all week that Cliff Lee is in the Yankees' heads and that they know they can't beat him. Last night all but proved that point. Last night the Yankees had the fewest base-runners they have EVER had in a playoff baseball game. In 100 years of baseball, the Yankees have never had less than the 3 base-runners they had last night (1 walk and 2 hits)off Cliff Lee. The Yankee crowd went nuts when Lee finally walked Tex in the 4th. The Swisher 11 pitch ground out may have been the most exciting at bat for the Yankees. In a game where Lee tied Hall-of-Famer Bob Gibson with 3 consecutive 10-strikeout games in the post-season, Lee was magical all night in the Bronx.
I could go on all day about Cliff Lee's performance and what he means to this team, but I'd like to look at what else is going on with the Rangers. The Rangers bats finally broke out last night in the 9th against the Yankee bullpen. Hamilton appears to be finding his swing and Michael Young had his best game of the playoffs going 3-5 driving the ball to the opposite field. Young and Hamilton are two of the biggest keys to this offense and if these guys start clicking our offense quickly becomes the best in baseball.
The real issue with this offense is Vlad Guerrero. Guerrero is hitting a meager .214 and the Yankees will continue to pitch around Hamilton to face Guerrero. Unless Guerrero makes them pay, which he hasn't shown he can do in the last 2 months, the Yankees will continue to take the bat out of Hamilton's hands. Nellie Cruz has been the best hitter on this roster hitting .387 with 3 home runs and 5 doubles. I see absolutely no reason we should not switch Vlad and Nellie. The Yankees are much more worried about Cruz hurting them than they are Vlad, and if they still decide to put Hamilton on Cruz can make them pay. I am not confident Vlad can.
The offense overall has been very good this series averaging over 6 runs per game. Today they see AJ Burnett who has been nothing short of terrible this year. Burnett has an era right at 7 for the last 2 month's of the season, and has had very little control. The Yankee media has no confidence in Burnett and most wanted CC to start on short rest, setting him up for a possible game 7. I am glad they didn't decide to do that. I think we can get to Burnett in a big way and get bullpen going early tonight. As long as we are patient and wait for good pitches, we should be able to put up plenty of runs tonight.
His opposition tonight will be Tommy Hunter. Tommy "Big Game" Hunter struggled in his ALDS start against the Rays, and has a tougher test tonight in the Bronx. The Yankees crush righties, and Tommy doesn't have great stuff. He is a solid rotation guy who will pound the zone, but he is not a guy who will come out and shut down this Yankee offense. If Hunter struggles early, Ron Washington will not hesitate to bring on Holland like he did in the 4th inning in Game 4 against the Rays. This could set up nicely for us. If the Yanks load their lineup with all of their lefties, Holland can come in and pitch his game.
A game 4 win would be huge for this Ranger team. It would guarantee a worst case scenario of a game 7 re-match in Arlington with Cliff Lee going against Pettite (not a bad worst case scenario). It would also create 2 opportunities for the Rangers to close the door with Wilson and Lewis (who both were very good in games 1 and 2), thus allowing Lee to be well rested to start game 1 of the World Series. Game 4 is by no means a must-win game for the Rangers, but it would put them in incredible position to push for the first World Series appearance in team history.
The Rangers have outplayed the Yankees in every aspect through the first 3 games. The Rangers carry an undefeated road playoff record into tonight's game with a favorable pitching match-up. The Rangers are in uncharted territory for this franchise as they move closer to a potential World Series appearance. Cliff Lee re-claimed home field advantage last night, and now the Rangers in position to take complete control of this series. The Rangers will play 2 games in the Bronx in 24 hours starting tonight before returning to Arlington. They could return as ALCS champs or in a 3-2 hole. Whatever the outcome, this will be a very exciting week. Enjoy this. For the 1st time in 38 years the Rangers are in the ALCS and in control. It's a great time to be a Ranger fan!!!
I could go on all day about Cliff Lee's performance and what he means to this team, but I'd like to look at what else is going on with the Rangers. The Rangers bats finally broke out last night in the 9th against the Yankee bullpen. Hamilton appears to be finding his swing and Michael Young had his best game of the playoffs going 3-5 driving the ball to the opposite field. Young and Hamilton are two of the biggest keys to this offense and if these guys start clicking our offense quickly becomes the best in baseball.
The real issue with this offense is Vlad Guerrero. Guerrero is hitting a meager .214 and the Yankees will continue to pitch around Hamilton to face Guerrero. Unless Guerrero makes them pay, which he hasn't shown he can do in the last 2 months, the Yankees will continue to take the bat out of Hamilton's hands. Nellie Cruz has been the best hitter on this roster hitting .387 with 3 home runs and 5 doubles. I see absolutely no reason we should not switch Vlad and Nellie. The Yankees are much more worried about Cruz hurting them than they are Vlad, and if they still decide to put Hamilton on Cruz can make them pay. I am not confident Vlad can.
The offense overall has been very good this series averaging over 6 runs per game. Today they see AJ Burnett who has been nothing short of terrible this year. Burnett has an era right at 7 for the last 2 month's of the season, and has had very little control. The Yankee media has no confidence in Burnett and most wanted CC to start on short rest, setting him up for a possible game 7. I am glad they didn't decide to do that. I think we can get to Burnett in a big way and get bullpen going early tonight. As long as we are patient and wait for good pitches, we should be able to put up plenty of runs tonight.
His opposition tonight will be Tommy Hunter. Tommy "Big Game" Hunter struggled in his ALDS start against the Rays, and has a tougher test tonight in the Bronx. The Yankees crush righties, and Tommy doesn't have great stuff. He is a solid rotation guy who will pound the zone, but he is not a guy who will come out and shut down this Yankee offense. If Hunter struggles early, Ron Washington will not hesitate to bring on Holland like he did in the 4th inning in Game 4 against the Rays. This could set up nicely for us. If the Yanks load their lineup with all of their lefties, Holland can come in and pitch his game.
A game 4 win would be huge for this Ranger team. It would guarantee a worst case scenario of a game 7 re-match in Arlington with Cliff Lee going against Pettite (not a bad worst case scenario). It would also create 2 opportunities for the Rangers to close the door with Wilson and Lewis (who both were very good in games 1 and 2), thus allowing Lee to be well rested to start game 1 of the World Series. Game 4 is by no means a must-win game for the Rangers, but it would put them in incredible position to push for the first World Series appearance in team history.
The Rangers have outplayed the Yankees in every aspect through the first 3 games. The Rangers carry an undefeated road playoff record into tonight's game with a favorable pitching match-up. The Rangers are in uncharted territory for this franchise as they move closer to a potential World Series appearance. Cliff Lee re-claimed home field advantage last night, and now the Rangers in position to take complete control of this series. The Rangers will play 2 games in the Bronx in 24 hours starting tonight before returning to Arlington. They could return as ALCS champs or in a 3-2 hole. Whatever the outcome, this will be a very exciting week. Enjoy this. For the 1st time in 38 years the Rangers are in the ALCS and in control. It's a great time to be a Ranger fan!!!
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Trust in Cliff
"Trust in Cliff" was the motto I lived by yesterday and Cliff came through. In the biggest game in Texas Rangers history the former Cy-Young award winner never gave the Rays a chance. On a night when Cliff Lee didn't have his best fastball command he was completely dominating, holding the Rays to 1 run on 6 hits with 11 strikeouts. The Rays had no idea how to attack Lee and were off-balance all night. The Rangers offense did a tremendous job of manufacturing runs against David Price and a tough Rays bullpen. The base-running of Andrus, Cruz, and Vladdy were key parts to the game, and has been a point of emphasis by Ron Washington all year. But last night was all about Cliff Lee.
Cliff Lee has established himself as a big game pitcher. In 5 postseason starts Cliff is 6-0 with a .78 ERA and a 54-6 K/BB ratio. His team has never lost a game he started. Lee threw a season high 120 pitches last night, but their was very little doubt in my mind that he was coming back out after 8. Lee did an incredible job of pitch selection. Lee didn't throw anything but cutters and fastballs until the 3rd inning. Lee threw 1 curvball and 2 change-ups through the first 3 innings. Lee threw the curveball 24% of the time from their on out. Lee's ability to switch back and forth between his 2-seam fastball, cutter, and looping 76-78 mph curveball was simply too much for the Rays offense.
Lee's performance last night was not simply great, it was one of the greatest of all time. Look at these records Cliff and the Rangers set last night:
Now as the Rangers return home to face off with the dreaded New York Bankees, the Rangers should be a more relaxed team without the burden of having never won a playoff series hanging over them. The Ballpark will be completely packed for the 1st two games this weekend as Rangers fans eagerly await the first Rangers ALCS game in history. In the words of the the new 'Secretariat' movie:
"You bout to see something you ain't never seen before". Bring on the Yankees!
Cliff Lee has established himself as a big game pitcher. In 5 postseason starts Cliff is 6-0 with a .78 ERA and a 54-6 K/BB ratio. His team has never lost a game he started. Lee threw a season high 120 pitches last night, but their was very little doubt in my mind that he was coming back out after 8. Lee did an incredible job of pitch selection. Lee didn't throw anything but cutters and fastballs until the 3rd inning. Lee threw 1 curvball and 2 change-ups through the first 3 innings. Lee threw the curveball 24% of the time from their on out. Lee's ability to switch back and forth between his 2-seam fastball, cutter, and looping 76-78 mph curveball was simply too much for the Rays offense.
Lee's performance last night was not simply great, it was one of the greatest of all time. Look at these records Cliff and the Rangers set last night:
- Became the 1st Ranger pitcher to clinch a playoff series.
- Won the 1st series to ever have the road team win every game.
- Helped set the Division Series record for most strikeouts in a series-55.
- Set the record for most strikeouts in a winner take all game-11.
- Set the record for most strikeouts in a post-season series without a walk-21 (2nd place-14).
- Tied for 3rd now with most consecutive playoff decisions won-6 (leader 8).
- Has now tied every other pitcher in the history of baseball with four 10-strikeout, no walk performances in the playoffs.
Now as the Rangers return home to face off with the dreaded New York Bankees, the Rangers should be a more relaxed team without the burden of having never won a playoff series hanging over them. The Ballpark will be completely packed for the 1st two games this weekend as Rangers fans eagerly await the first Rangers ALCS game in history. In the words of the the new 'Secretariat' movie:
"You bout to see something you ain't never seen before". Bring on the Yankees!
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Rangers-Rays Series Preview
It is finally time for the return of Ranger playoff baseball. Today at 12:37, Elvis Andrus will step to the plate against David Price to kick off the Rangers first playoff appearance in 11 years. The Rangers first round opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays, hold the best record in the American League out of the deepest division in baseball. It will be a very tough match-up for the Rangers, but one they are capable of winning. For the first time in the history of the Texas Rangers, they are in position to win their first Division Series championship.
The Rangers match up very well against the Rays on paper. The Rangers have a better rotation, more power, and comparable defense. The Rays, however, are great at the little things that are more difficult to quantify. The Rays make very few mistakes on the bases or in the field. They are also the clear cut best base-running team in all of baseball. The Rays are the masters of taking the extra base. The Rays are an excellent small ball team who will give the Rangers fits with their speed and base-running. It is a very exciting match-up, and should be one of the more even series in the first round. Let's take a look closer at the individual match-ups.
The Rotation
The Rangers have a definite advantage in the rotation. In every pitching match-up the Rangers have an advantage. Cliff Lee is much better than David Price. Price has the 97 MPH fastball to go with the glamor of being a 24 year phenom. He was the 1st overall pick in 2007 and was featured in ESPN Magazines' Next edition. But when analyzing the numbers Price is not even on the same tier as Cliff Lee. Lee has a 2.58 FIP (Fielding independent pitching) and a 7.0 WAR this season. Price holds a 3.42 FIP and 4.3 WAR. That is a significant difference that gives the Rangers a strong advantage in Games 1 and 5 (if needed). Price is an excellent pitcher, but he is beatable. He doesn't throw a lot of strikes, and is 6th in the league in walks entering today's game. One of the biggest differences between the two is Price's inability to pitch over 6 innings consistently due to his extremely high pitch counts. Price will be one of the best pitchers over then next 10 years, but right now he is not on the same level as Cliff Lee.
The 2nd game match-up between C. J. Wilson and James Shields is just as skewed toward the Rangers. James Shields leads all of the AL with 34 home runs allowed and comes in with a 7 ERA during the month of September. Shields has not been pitching well all year and his biggest issue is that he throws a flat low-90's fastball almost 70% of the time. This is the type of pitcher the Rangers can get to. If C.J. is on his game the Rangers should have a clear advantage here.
The 3rd game between Colby Lewis and Matt Garza is even more dramatic in terms of FIP than the Game 2 match-up. Colby has a 3.55 FIP and 4.4 WAR. Garza is at 4.48 FIP and 1.8 WAR. Garza also limped down the stretch with a 5.88 ERA in September, his highest of any month. Most people consider Garza the better pitcher out of him and Shields, but WAR says differently (2.2-1.8). My opinion is that Joe Maddon didn't want Shields, with his home-run tendencies, to pitch in Arlington. This is another match-up where the Rangers seem to have an advantage.
The 4th game match-up is very close. Tommy Hunter and Wade Davis are both young guys who had good years. Hunter's numbers are better on the surface, but their numbers are very comparable when looking at FIP(4.99-4.79) and WAR (.7-.8). Hunter has been tremendous at home going 7-0 and hopefully that will give him and edge. This is the only match-up that the Rangers do not have a clear pitching advantage.
For the Rangers to go into a series knowing that their starter will be better in 4 of 5 possible games is a tremendous confidence boost. This has been the whole key to the Rangers turnaround the last few years, and this will be the strength that pushes the Rangers forward.
The Bullpen
The bullpen is one place the Rays have a slight advantage in. The Rays bullpen has been absolutely lights out all year, and even more so in the last month. The Rays pen has not allowed a run in their last 32.2 innings of work. That is an incredible run. Soriano (1.73 ERA, 46 saves) has been among the best closers all year long, and their middle relievers have been just as lights out. Joaquin Benoit (1.34 ERA), Grant Balfour (2.28 ERA), Dan Wheeler (3.35 ERA), and electric rookie Jake McGee (1 hit in 5 innings) will be very challenging for the Rangers to come back against. The Rays may have the best bullpen in the entire playoffs.
-Quick Update- Jake McGee was a surprise late cut to the playoff roster as was BA MILB POY Jeremy Hellickson.
That being said the Rangers have a tremendous bullpen of their own. The Rangers have chosen to go with a 6 man bullpen (announced 30 minutes ago), which is unconventional. The Rangers have elected to go with closer Neftali Feliz, Darren Oliver, Darren O'Day, rookie Alexi Ogando, long-man Dustin Nippert, and Derek Holland. The Rangers chose Holland over Rapada due to his ability to pitch multiple innings and get righties and lefties out. One reason for the 6 man pen is that Tommy Hunter can be available in Game 1, and Wilson will be available in Game 5. This bullpen has been as good as any all year being led by likely Rookie-of-the-Year Neftali Feliz and his 40 saves.
Both teams will have a very difficult time scoring runs late in games this series. These bullpens are tremendous and know how to finish a game. Expect the starters to determine the outcome in most games this series.
The Bats
The lineups of both teams have been heavily scrutinized over the last week. Both teams best hitter has missed the last 2 weeks of play, and both claim to be about 85%. Evan Longoria hasn't played in 12 games due to a tight quad. Longoria has gotten zero at-bats to prepare himself for the post-season. A 3-18 career line against Lee is also an issue. Hamilton got 3 games worth of at-bats last weekend and looked very good. Hamilton homered, drew a walk, and looked to have his timing back. I am not worried too much about Hamilton or any rust he may have.
The Rays are not a great offensive team. Tampa is 13th in the AL in BA, 6th in Home runs, 1st in total strikeouts, 1st in walks, and 1st in steals. This team is built around drawing walks, moving people over using their tremendous team speed, and being opportunistic. This will be a concern with C.J. on the mound with his control, but should bode well for Cliff Lee, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter. This team is all about working counts, and waiting for the pitcher to fall behind and make a mistake. This staff has done a great job of controlling the strike zone, and this will hopefully neutralize some of the Rays speed.
One huge x-factor for the Rays could be 1B Carlos Pena. Pena is hitting a meager .196 but still has 28 home runs and 84 RBI. Pena holds a .325 OBP! It is an incredible feat to have a .325 OBP while only batting .196. This guy could easily go 1-13 in the series with 5 walks and a 3-run homer to win a game. Pena is a guy who scares me due to how he is perceived and the guys around him. He is dangerous hitting around Crawford and Longoria. I think he could be a key to this series.
For the Rangers it feels like the first time in months that we will see the full lineup intact. Hamilton is finally back. Kinsler is healthy. Cruz is healthy and playing his best baseball. Francouer has played great since coming over the New York and will start against Price in the opener. Cantu finally looks to be coming around some. Moreland will start Games 2-4 and he has looked great at the plate in the last month. Borbon hit .309 for the month of September. Murphy claims to be healthy and ready to go. The lineup has finally come together the way Ron Washington pictured it in April. This lineup is extremely dangerous, and the Rays starting pitching isn't exactly the 1999 Yankees. This team has the ability to put up runs in a hurry, and I fully expect the Rangers to make it very tough on the Rays to play their small ball in at least 2 games this series.
After looking at the match-ups it is clear the Rangers have the advantage on paper. Their are, however, numerous things that you can't put on paper that come up in the playoffs. Will Feliz be able to handle the pressure of playoff baseball in his rookie season? How much does playoff experience and home field really matter because the Rangers lack both? These are questions that will be answered very quickly. Tim Kurkjian just called this series the most interesting series in the Divisional round. I certainly expect it to be.
This fan base has waited 11 years for another playoff game for the Rangers, and that day has finally come. I told anybody who would listen two years ago that 2010 would be the year the Rangers would return to the playoffs. So many things have built up to get to this point. All the work Daniels has done building this team from the system up. All the effort and sacrifices Michael Young has made for this organization over the last 10 years. Everything Josh Hamilton has been through over the last 6 years to re-find himself and return to the game of Baseball. The resiliency of of Nolan Ryan and Chuck Greenberg to purchase this team through the month's of bankruptcy court and supply the money needed to pay for the deals the Rangers have made to improve this ball club. All of these events have led to this moment! The Rangers have returned to the playoffs. Finally, It Is Time!
The Rangers match up very well against the Rays on paper. The Rangers have a better rotation, more power, and comparable defense. The Rays, however, are great at the little things that are more difficult to quantify. The Rays make very few mistakes on the bases or in the field. They are also the clear cut best base-running team in all of baseball. The Rays are the masters of taking the extra base. The Rays are an excellent small ball team who will give the Rangers fits with their speed and base-running. It is a very exciting match-up, and should be one of the more even series in the first round. Let's take a look closer at the individual match-ups.
The Rotation
The Rangers have a definite advantage in the rotation. In every pitching match-up the Rangers have an advantage. Cliff Lee is much better than David Price. Price has the 97 MPH fastball to go with the glamor of being a 24 year phenom. He was the 1st overall pick in 2007 and was featured in ESPN Magazines' Next edition. But when analyzing the numbers Price is not even on the same tier as Cliff Lee. Lee has a 2.58 FIP (Fielding independent pitching) and a 7.0 WAR this season. Price holds a 3.42 FIP and 4.3 WAR. That is a significant difference that gives the Rangers a strong advantage in Games 1 and 5 (if needed). Price is an excellent pitcher, but he is beatable. He doesn't throw a lot of strikes, and is 6th in the league in walks entering today's game. One of the biggest differences between the two is Price's inability to pitch over 6 innings consistently due to his extremely high pitch counts. Price will be one of the best pitchers over then next 10 years, but right now he is not on the same level as Cliff Lee.
The 2nd game match-up between C. J. Wilson and James Shields is just as skewed toward the Rangers. James Shields leads all of the AL with 34 home runs allowed and comes in with a 7 ERA during the month of September. Shields has not been pitching well all year and his biggest issue is that he throws a flat low-90's fastball almost 70% of the time. This is the type of pitcher the Rangers can get to. If C.J. is on his game the Rangers should have a clear advantage here.
The 3rd game between Colby Lewis and Matt Garza is even more dramatic in terms of FIP than the Game 2 match-up. Colby has a 3.55 FIP and 4.4 WAR. Garza is at 4.48 FIP and 1.8 WAR. Garza also limped down the stretch with a 5.88 ERA in September, his highest of any month. Most people consider Garza the better pitcher out of him and Shields, but WAR says differently (2.2-1.8). My opinion is that Joe Maddon didn't want Shields, with his home-run tendencies, to pitch in Arlington. This is another match-up where the Rangers seem to have an advantage.
The 4th game match-up is very close. Tommy Hunter and Wade Davis are both young guys who had good years. Hunter's numbers are better on the surface, but their numbers are very comparable when looking at FIP(4.99-4.79) and WAR (.7-.8). Hunter has been tremendous at home going 7-0 and hopefully that will give him and edge. This is the only match-up that the Rangers do not have a clear pitching advantage.
For the Rangers to go into a series knowing that their starter will be better in 4 of 5 possible games is a tremendous confidence boost. This has been the whole key to the Rangers turnaround the last few years, and this will be the strength that pushes the Rangers forward.
The Bullpen
The bullpen is one place the Rays have a slight advantage in. The Rays bullpen has been absolutely lights out all year, and even more so in the last month. The Rays pen has not allowed a run in their last 32.2 innings of work. That is an incredible run. Soriano (1.73 ERA, 46 saves) has been among the best closers all year long, and their middle relievers have been just as lights out. Joaquin Benoit (1.34 ERA), Grant Balfour (2.28 ERA), Dan Wheeler (3.35 ERA), and electric rookie Jake McGee (1 hit in 5 innings) will be very challenging for the Rangers to come back against. The Rays may have the best bullpen in the entire playoffs.
-Quick Update- Jake McGee was a surprise late cut to the playoff roster as was BA MILB POY Jeremy Hellickson.
That being said the Rangers have a tremendous bullpen of their own. The Rangers have chosen to go with a 6 man bullpen (announced 30 minutes ago), which is unconventional. The Rangers have elected to go with closer Neftali Feliz, Darren Oliver, Darren O'Day, rookie Alexi Ogando, long-man Dustin Nippert, and Derek Holland. The Rangers chose Holland over Rapada due to his ability to pitch multiple innings and get righties and lefties out. One reason for the 6 man pen is that Tommy Hunter can be available in Game 1, and Wilson will be available in Game 5. This bullpen has been as good as any all year being led by likely Rookie-of-the-Year Neftali Feliz and his 40 saves.
Both teams will have a very difficult time scoring runs late in games this series. These bullpens are tremendous and know how to finish a game. Expect the starters to determine the outcome in most games this series.
The Bats
The lineups of both teams have been heavily scrutinized over the last week. Both teams best hitter has missed the last 2 weeks of play, and both claim to be about 85%. Evan Longoria hasn't played in 12 games due to a tight quad. Longoria has gotten zero at-bats to prepare himself for the post-season. A 3-18 career line against Lee is also an issue. Hamilton got 3 games worth of at-bats last weekend and looked very good. Hamilton homered, drew a walk, and looked to have his timing back. I am not worried too much about Hamilton or any rust he may have.
The Rays are not a great offensive team. Tampa is 13th in the AL in BA, 6th in Home runs, 1st in total strikeouts, 1st in walks, and 1st in steals. This team is built around drawing walks, moving people over using their tremendous team speed, and being opportunistic. This will be a concern with C.J. on the mound with his control, but should bode well for Cliff Lee, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter. This team is all about working counts, and waiting for the pitcher to fall behind and make a mistake. This staff has done a great job of controlling the strike zone, and this will hopefully neutralize some of the Rays speed.
One huge x-factor for the Rays could be 1B Carlos Pena. Pena is hitting a meager .196 but still has 28 home runs and 84 RBI. Pena holds a .325 OBP! It is an incredible feat to have a .325 OBP while only batting .196. This guy could easily go 1-13 in the series with 5 walks and a 3-run homer to win a game. Pena is a guy who scares me due to how he is perceived and the guys around him. He is dangerous hitting around Crawford and Longoria. I think he could be a key to this series.
For the Rangers it feels like the first time in months that we will see the full lineup intact. Hamilton is finally back. Kinsler is healthy. Cruz is healthy and playing his best baseball. Francouer has played great since coming over the New York and will start against Price in the opener. Cantu finally looks to be coming around some. Moreland will start Games 2-4 and he has looked great at the plate in the last month. Borbon hit .309 for the month of September. Murphy claims to be healthy and ready to go. The lineup has finally come together the way Ron Washington pictured it in April. This lineup is extremely dangerous, and the Rays starting pitching isn't exactly the 1999 Yankees. This team has the ability to put up runs in a hurry, and I fully expect the Rangers to make it very tough on the Rays to play their small ball in at least 2 games this series.
After looking at the match-ups it is clear the Rangers have the advantage on paper. Their are, however, numerous things that you can't put on paper that come up in the playoffs. Will Feliz be able to handle the pressure of playoff baseball in his rookie season? How much does playoff experience and home field really matter because the Rangers lack both? These are questions that will be answered very quickly. Tim Kurkjian just called this series the most interesting series in the Divisional round. I certainly expect it to be.
This fan base has waited 11 years for another playoff game for the Rangers, and that day has finally come. I told anybody who would listen two years ago that 2010 would be the year the Rangers would return to the playoffs. So many things have built up to get to this point. All the work Daniels has done building this team from the system up. All the effort and sacrifices Michael Young has made for this organization over the last 10 years. Everything Josh Hamilton has been through over the last 6 years to re-find himself and return to the game of Baseball. The resiliency of of Nolan Ryan and Chuck Greenberg to purchase this team through the month's of bankruptcy court and supply the money needed to pay for the deals the Rangers have made to improve this ball club. All of these events have led to this moment! The Rangers have returned to the playoffs. Finally, It Is Time!
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