Rangers-Rays Series Preview

It is finally time for the return of Ranger playoff baseball. Today at 12:37, Elvis Andrus will step to the plate against David Price to kick off the Rangers first playoff appearance in 11 years. The Rangers first round opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays, hold the best record in the American League out of the deepest division in baseball. It will be a very tough match-up for the Rangers, but one they are capable of winning. For the first time in the history of the Texas Rangers, they are in position to win their first Division Series championship.

The Rangers match up very well against the Rays on paper. The Rangers have a better rotation, more power, and comparable defense. The Rays, however, are great at the little things that are more difficult to quantify. The Rays make very few mistakes on the bases or in the field. They are also the clear cut best base-running team in all of baseball.  The Rays are the masters of taking the extra base. The Rays are an excellent small ball team who will give the Rangers fits with their speed and base-running. It is a very exciting match-up, and should be one of the more even series in the first round. Let's take a look closer at the individual match-ups.

The Rotation

The Rangers have a definite advantage in the rotation. In every pitching match-up the Rangers have an advantage. Cliff Lee is much better than David Price. Price has the 97 MPH fastball to go with the glamor of being a 24 year phenom. He was the 1st overall pick in 2007 and was featured in ESPN Magazines' Next edition. But when analyzing the numbers Price is not even on the same tier as Cliff Lee. Lee has a 2.58 FIP (Fielding independent pitching) and a 7.0 WAR this season. Price holds a 3.42 FIP and 4.3 WAR. That is a significant difference that gives the Rangers a strong advantage in Games 1 and 5 (if needed). Price is an excellent pitcher, but he is beatable. He doesn't throw a lot of strikes, and is 6th in the league in walks entering today's game. One of the biggest differences between the two is Price's inability to pitch over 6 innings consistently due to his extremely high pitch counts. Price will be one of the best pitchers over then next 10 years, but right now he is not on the same level as Cliff Lee.

The 2nd game match-up between C. J. Wilson and James Shields is just as skewed toward the Rangers. James Shields leads all of the AL with 34 home runs allowed and comes in with a 7 ERA during the month of September. Shields has not been pitching well all year and his biggest issue is that he throws a flat low-90's fastball almost 70% of the time. This is the type of pitcher the Rangers can get to. If C.J. is on his game the Rangers should have a clear advantage here.

The 3rd game between Colby Lewis and Matt Garza is even more dramatic in terms of FIP than the Game 2 match-up. Colby has a 3.55 FIP and 4.4 WAR. Garza is at 4.48 FIP and 1.8 WAR. Garza also limped down the stretch with a 5.88 ERA in September, his highest of any month. Most people consider Garza the better pitcher out of him and Shields, but WAR says differently (2.2-1.8). My opinion is that Joe Maddon didn't want Shields, with his home-run tendencies, to pitch in Arlington. This is another match-up where the Rangers seem to have an advantage.

The 4th game match-up is very close. Tommy Hunter and Wade Davis are both young guys who had good years. Hunter's numbers are better on the surface, but their numbers are very comparable when looking at FIP(4.99-4.79) and WAR (.7-.8). Hunter has been tremendous at home going 7-0 and hopefully that will give him and edge. This is the only match-up that the Rangers do not have a clear pitching advantage.

For the Rangers to go into a series knowing that their starter will be better in 4 of 5 possible games is a tremendous confidence boost. This has been the whole key to the Rangers turnaround the last few years, and this will be the strength that pushes the Rangers forward.

The Bullpen

The bullpen is one place the Rays have a slight advantage in. The Rays bullpen has been absolutely lights out all year, and even more so in the last month. The Rays pen has not allowed a run in their last 32.2 innings of work. That is an incredible run. Soriano (1.73 ERA, 46 saves) has been among the best closers all year long, and their middle relievers have been just as lights out. Joaquin Benoit (1.34 ERA), Grant Balfour (2.28 ERA), Dan Wheeler (3.35 ERA), and electric rookie Jake McGee (1 hit in 5 innings) will be very challenging for the Rangers to come back against. The Rays may have the best bullpen in the entire playoffs.

-Quick Update- Jake McGee was a surprise late cut to the playoff roster as was BA MILB POY Jeremy Hellickson. 

That being said the Rangers have a tremendous bullpen of their own. The Rangers have chosen to go with a 6 man bullpen (announced 30 minutes ago), which is unconventional. The Rangers have elected to go with closer Neftali Feliz, Darren Oliver, Darren O'Day, rookie Alexi Ogando, long-man Dustin Nippert, and Derek Holland. The Rangers chose Holland over Rapada due to his ability to pitch multiple innings and get righties and lefties out. One reason for the 6 man pen is that Tommy Hunter can be available in Game 1, and Wilson will be available in Game 5. This bullpen has been as good as any all year being led by likely Rookie-of-the-Year Neftali Feliz and his 40 saves.

Both teams will have a very difficult time scoring runs late in games this series. These bullpens are tremendous and know how to finish a game. Expect the starters to determine the outcome in most games this series.

The Bats

The lineups of both teams have been heavily scrutinized over the last week. Both teams best hitter has missed the last 2 weeks of play, and both claim to be about 85%. Evan Longoria hasn't played in 12 games due to a tight quad. Longoria has gotten zero at-bats to prepare himself for the post-season. A 3-18 career line against Lee is also an issue. Hamilton got 3 games worth of at-bats last weekend and looked very good. Hamilton homered, drew a walk, and looked to have his timing back. I am not worried too much about Hamilton or any rust he may have.

The Rays are not a great offensive team. Tampa is 13th in the AL in BA, 6th in Home runs, 1st in total strikeouts, 1st in walks, and 1st in steals. This team is built around drawing walks, moving people over using their tremendous team speed, and being opportunistic. This will be a concern with C.J. on the mound with his control, but should bode well for Cliff Lee, Colby Lewis, and Tommy Hunter. This team is all about working counts, and waiting for the pitcher to fall behind and make a mistake. This staff has done a great job of controlling the strike zone, and this will hopefully neutralize some of the Rays speed. 

One huge x-factor for the Rays could be 1B Carlos Pena. Pena is hitting a meager .196 but still has 28 home runs and 84 RBI. Pena holds a .325 OBP! It is an incredible feat to have a .325 OBP while only batting .196. This guy could easily go 1-13 in the series with 5 walks and a 3-run homer to win a game. Pena is a guy who scares me due to how he is perceived and the guys around him. He is dangerous hitting around Crawford and Longoria. I think he could be a key to this series.

For the Rangers it feels like the first time in months that we will see the full lineup intact. Hamilton is finally back. Kinsler is healthy. Cruz is healthy and playing his best baseball. Francouer has played great since coming over the New York and will start against Price in the opener. Cantu finally looks to be coming around some. Moreland will start Games 2-4 and he has looked great at the plate in the last month. Borbon hit .309 for the month of September. Murphy claims to be healthy and ready to go. The lineup has finally come together the way Ron Washington pictured it in April. This lineup is extremely dangerous, and the Rays starting pitching isn't exactly the 1999 Yankees. This team has the ability to put up runs in a hurry, and I fully expect the Rangers to make it very tough on the Rays to play their small ball in at least 2 games this series. 



After looking at the match-ups it is clear the Rangers have the advantage on paper. Their are, however, numerous things that you can't put on paper that come up in the playoffs. Will Feliz be able to handle the pressure of playoff baseball in his rookie season? How much does playoff experience and home field really matter because the Rangers lack both? These are questions that will be answered very quickly. Tim Kurkjian just called this series the most interesting series in the Divisional round. I certainly expect it to be.

This fan base has waited 11 years for another playoff game for the Rangers, and that day has finally come. I told anybody who would listen two years ago that 2010 would be the year the Rangers would return to the playoffs. So many things have built up to get to this point. All the work Daniels has done building this team from the system up. All the effort and sacrifices Michael Young has made for this organization over the last 10 years. Everything Josh Hamilton has been through over the last 6 years to re-find himself and return to the game of Baseball. The resiliency of of Nolan Ryan and Chuck Greenberg to purchase this team through the month's of bankruptcy court and supply the money needed to pay for the deals the Rangers have made to improve this ball club. All of these events have led to this moment! The Rangers have returned to the playoffs. Finally, It Is Time!