Sunday, September 26, 2010

The Rangers Clinch

For the first time since 1999 the Texas Rangers will be in the Major League Baseball Playoffs. The Rangers defeated the 2nd place Oakland Athletics yesterday 4-3 behind unlikely hero Jorge Cantu's solo home run in the 8th inning. This is the earliest date the Rangers have ever clinched the division and now have 8 games to rest players going into the playoffs. Lee and Wilson will get an extra day of rest or 2, as will guys like Vladdy, Andrus, Young, Cruz, and Kinsler. This is a great position for the Rangers to be in. Don't underestimate the importance of clinching early in order to give the key guys a couple of days to rest going into the playoffs while the Rays and Yankees battle each other for the right to home field.

This is a great moment for a franchise who has struggled for most of its existence. The Rangers are currently the only team in baseball to never win a playoff series. I am convinced that this year is truly a turning point for this franchise. We have a great ownership group in place with Greenberg and Ryan. We have a fantastic front office with Daniels, Levine, Preller, and so many others. We also have a core of players who are under team control for years backed by an excellent farm system. This team is in position to make a decade long run of division dominance similar to the Angels of the 2000s. This is the first step.

This is a great moment for so many of the Rangers players, but it is an especially sweet moment for Michael Young. Young currently is 2nd place among active players with the most games without a playoff appearance (1,502 games) behind journeyman Randy Winn. Young has spent all 11 years of his career as one of the best hitters on a bad Ranger team. Young has been the ultimate professional throughout his whole career. He has never asked for a trade, or created a locker room problem due to him being a great player on a bad team. A-Rod wanted out. Soriano asked to leave. Tex said he'd like to move on. But not Mike Young. Young signed an extension, and has become one of the most beloved Rangers of all time. On his way to becoming the Rangers All-time hit leader, Young became one of the most well-respected players in all of baseball. Young deserves this opportunity, and I expect him to make the most of it.

Now that the Rangers have clinched they can focus on getting ready for either the Rays or Yankees. It looks more likely each day that their first round opponent will the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rangers' biggest focus needs to be on setting up our playoff rotation, looking at potential bench players, and getting Josh Hamilton healthy. Hamilton expects to be ready to play for the last series. I would love to see the Rangers bat Hamilton lead-off each game to guarantee him the maximum amount of plate appearances each game, although I doubt it will happen.

The Rangers will also use these last 8 games to look at the 1B conundrum. Moreland has struggled hitting just .224 in September. Cantu has been terrible hitting just .231 with 2 RBI (both yesterday) since coming over from Florida. He will most likely make the team simply because he is right-handed. The third option is Chris Davis. Davis lost his job in May, and then again in July, but has looked excellent since returning in September. Davis is only 4-9 since returning, but he has walked 4 times with a homer and a double. Davis looks to have improved his plate discipline and looks very calm at the plate. In the past Davis has shown a tendency to have too much movement at the plate rather than just staying quiet. Davis is also the best defensive first baseman by far. Either Moreland or Davis will make the playoff roster, and I am in favor of Davis. I think he looks very good at the plate, and his defensive abilities could save us runs in the playoffs. All 3 are starting in the lineup today. Expect all of them to get significant playing time throughout the week.

This is a great time to be a Ranger fan. This team has a legit chance to be a force this year in the playoffs. This isn't the mid-90's where the Yankees were beginning a dynasty. All 4 teams in the AL have significant issues including the Rangers. However, this Ranger team has the ability to out-hit  and out-pitch any team any night of the week. A rotation of Lee-Wilson-Lewis will be very difficult to defeat. The Ranger lineup with Hamilton in the middle will be as good as any lineup in the playoffs. This team is without a doubt good enough to win the franchise's first playoff series ever. As CJ and Mike Young said last night during the celebration, "This is only the beginning."

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Cowboys Start Off in a Hole

2 weeks into the NFL season and the Dallas Cowboys are still winless. After a disgusting performance in Washington in Week 1, the Cowboys lost their home opener on Sunday 27-20 to the Chicago Bears. The team's lackluster play to start the season has been very disconcerting to Cowboys fans who expect much better. Their are many issues that have led to the 0-2 start, and everybody has their own opinion. Just listen to the radio. I have watched every snap of the 2010 season thus far, and attended the game Sunday. Through my observations and statistical analysis I have noticed a couple of key issues.

  1. The biggest obvious issue is the absolute lack of a running game. The Cowboys rank 28 out 30 teams in overall team rushing. All off-season there have been massive amounts of hype surrounding the Cowboys "three-headed monster" at running back. This "monster" looks more like Mike Wazowski than Sully. Marion Barber (3.7 ypc), Felix Jones (3.0 ypc), and Tashard Choice (2.7 ypc) have all been ineffective. Barber, while not being great, is the only back who has been close to what was expected of him. Barber is a big, bruising back who isn't going to break any long runs but is expected to loosen up the interior. Jones is expected to be the big-hitter, but he has been easily the most disappointing. There have been a massive outcry for more touches for Felix Jones, but I am one of the few not on the Felix bandwagon. He has done nothing to warrant the starting job, nor has he proven he deserves more touches. People see Barber get 4 yards, and think Jones would have gotten 10 with his quickness. While this may be true, Felix is either not seeing the hole develop, or does not have the power to get through the hole. Either way this is a serious issue. The Cowboys cannot expect to win averaging just under 70 ypg on the ground. My suggestion would be go back to what worked last year. Pound Barber, get Felix on the outside, run Choice off counters and cut backs, and pray for offensive line help.
  2. The 2nd issue I want to look at is the defense's lack of ability to force turnovers. This Dallas defense has forced 0 turnovers while being in the middle of the pack in overall team defense. If you aren't going to be an elite defense in terms of yardage given up, then you have to create turnovers. The Cowboys rank 18th in passing yards against, and 7th in rushing yards against. The defense overall has looked solid, but has given up to many big plays in the passing game. The defense under Wade Phillips has always been a bend-but-don't-break defense. At some point though, for this defense to become elite, it has to force some turnovers. Especially with the offense struggling. Sunday was a great example of how disappointing this defense has been at forcing turnovers. Jay Cutler, a guy who threw 26 Int's and had 4 fumbles last year, completed 72% of his passes and threw 0 Int's and had 0 fumbles. Cutler is a guy who is well-known for having a gunslinger mentality who will throw picks when pressured. On Sunday, Cutler looked like a young Peyton Manning. He looked calm in the pocket, although we did hit him often in the 1st quarter, and threw the ball to the open target every time. I don't even remember a pass that should have been picked off. The lack of ability to pressure the QB, and to create turnovers will plague this team all year if it doesn't fix the problems. 
  3. The third major issue is one that I have attempted to stay away from as best as possible. The Tony Romo issue. I have listened to his critics for years now, and have always been on Tony's side. I do not believe he is the reason for all of our troubles, and I am not intending to single him out as the main issue. However, Romo's play has lacked consistency and contributed to our struggles. Romo has a 66.3 completion percentage and has 656 yards through 2 games. Both of these stats look very good on the surface. If he's my fantasy QB I'm happy. But let's look closer at these numbers.
  • Romo has a total completion percentage of 66.3. Broken down by quarter it looks like this. 1st-76.5%, 2nd-64.3%, 3rd-66.7%, 4th-62.9%. The first quarter is by far the highest completion percentage, but this number is skewed due to the fact that most of his early passes have been short, safe routes. Romo holds the lowest percentage in the 4th quarter, although the difference is not all that significant. This number may be slightly lower due to more long throws as well. 
  • The percentage by quarter didn't show us much so let's look at completion percentage by down. 1st down- 68.9%, 2nd down-72.7%, 3rd down- 47.4%. Here we have a huge difference, and a huge problem. I noticed watching the game that many of Tony's 3rd down throws were very poor. I spoke to a friend of mine about the problem after the game, and decided to look up the numbers. These paint a good picture of why the Cowboys are in the top 10 in overall yardage, but can't seem to put any points on the board. Romo has to improve his 3rd down passing. If you watched the Bears game you may have seen that Tashard Choice feels the same way.
  • The final stat I want to look at for Romo are his percentages as he gets closer to the end zone. From own 1-20: 66.7%, own 21-50: 77.8%, opp 49-20: 55.3%, opp  19-10: 55.6%, opp 9-1: 100%. This gives us another look at why the Cowboys are struggling to score. Romo is having no problem completing passes and moving the ball while on the Cowboys side of the field. As the Cowboys get closer to the end-zone Romo becomes more inaccurate.
These issues combine to cause some serious problems for the Cowboys. The Romo struggles particularly concern me. I am starting to come around to the theory that Romo will not become an elite Quarterback who can lead this team to the championship. When looking closer at his splits I see a vast difference between him and the other elite Quarterbacks around the league. The offensive line and running game problems are just as big, but when you struggle at the most important position on the field things become much more difficult.


 Rangers update
  • Josh Hamilton got news today that he has a "stable fracture" in 2 of his ribs and received a anti-inflammatory shot today for it. It should take 2-3 days for the effect from the shot to take place. Hamilton believes he will be able to play 5 or 6 games on the last home-stand to get ready for the playoffs. This is a huge story to follow as the Rangers need a healthy Josh Hamilton going into the playoffs. Murphy has done an incredible job filling in, but we need both come playoff time.
  • The Rangers magic number is now at 6 games. The Rangers should be able to clinch the division over the weekend during a 4 game series in Oakland. Lee will be on the mound for the opener looking for his 3rd great start in a row. I wrote in my last entry that Lee struggled some last year in Philly before having a few great starts going into the playoffs. History looks to be repeating itself. 
  • Holland may have pitched himself out a playoff spot last night. Holland had very little command last night giving up 4 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in just 3 2/3 innings. Holland has better overall stuff than Tommy Hunter, but Hunter's ability to command his pitches and his consistency this year should earn him the #4 starter spot in the playoffs. 
Also, if you're interested in looking at some of the other top QB's statistical breakdowns here are the links.
Drew Brees
Peyton Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady

Saturday, September 11, 2010

No Excuses in Dallas

Last night started one of the biggest weekends for Dallas sports teams in a long time. Nelson Cruz ended a 13 inning game against the hated New York Yankees with a walk-off Home Run off Chad Gaudin. Nellie had tied the game in the 8th with his first solo shot of the night. The win kept the Rangers up 7 1/2 on the Athletics and lowered the magic number down to 15. The Rangers used a club record 11 pitchers last night, after getting only 3 innings from starter CJ Wilson. Wilson has been nearly unbeatable since the All-Star break going 7-1 with a 2.67 ERA. Many people have been claiming that CJ needs to start Game 1 of the ALDS in October over Lee. I'm not willing to go that far, but CJ has proven he can be a front end starter. Last night would appear to be an abberation.

The debate over who should start game 1, Lee or Wilson, brings up another reason that this weekend is important for Dallas sports fans. On Sunday Cliff Lee makes his first start in over a week in game 3 of the series. Lee will pitch against ex-Angel Dustin Moseley who has zero chance of being in the Yankee playoff rotation. Lee missed his Tuesday start due to a shot he received for lower back pain. Lee seems to believe that the lower back pain has been one of the main causes for his recent poor outings. It appears that the back pain was giving Lee difficulty in getting the ball down in the zone. The results seem to agree with this. Rangers fans everywhere will be paying close attention to whether or not the lack of back pain will bring back the Cliff Lee we expected to get when we dealt for him in July. It's a big start for Lee against the Rangers likely first round opponent. A dominant start on Sunday should immediately re-energize the team, and kick start the Rangers playoff push. A positive sign that the Ace of the staff is back on track would really help a struggling team.

A great Lee start would be great to see, but their is another guy that I would really like to see back in the lineup soon: Josh Hamilton. Hamilton has missed a week now with bruised ribs after crashing into a wall last weekend. X-rays were negative, and it's simply up to Hamilton as to when he can return. I expect the Rangers are being extremely precarious with Hammy, since the Rangers absolutely NEED a healthy Hambone to have playoff success. Hamilton is the best hitter in baseball, and we have one of the best lineups in the league with him in the middle of it. Without Hamilton we have a good lineup. One that can score some runs and compete in the post-season, but without Hamilton in the playoffs their is little chance of this team getting very far.

I will be at the game Sunday to see Lee wrap up a winning series against the Yankees. One thing I do not expect to see much of Sunday is our bullpen. A bullpen that pitched 10 guys last night. A bullpen who pitched 10 innings of 1 run, 7 hit, 10 strikeout baseball against one of the top 5 offenses in the league. A bullpen composed of incredible rookies-Feliz, Ogando, Kirkman, and Strop- grizzled veterans- Oliver, O'Day, Nippert- and converted starters- Feldman, Harden, Harrison. A bullpen that is one of the very best in the league. The ability of the Rangers to create a bullpen from within over the last year has been incredible. It is going to be very, very difficult to put together the playoff bullpen with so many viable options. This group doesn't even include our main 8th inning guy Frank Francisco who is dealing with an abdomen injury. This bullpen is one of the key reasons the Rangers will be successful in the playoffs.



Their is another team in the Dallas area who tends to create a small stir around the area every Fall. That team is the Dallas Cowboys. The Dallas Cowboys will kick their season off in prime time Sunday night against The Washington Redskins. The Cowboys-Redskins rivalry is one of the best in professional football, and every game seems to be close. The Cowboys are easily the better team on paper, but this is by no means a gimme game.

New Redskin Quarterback Donovan McNabb injured his ankle in Week 1 of the Pre-season and was listed as questionable for the opener for the majority of the last 3 weeks. This week new Coach Mike Shanahan did state that he believes McNabb will play. I never assumed he wouldn't. The Cowboys have seen plenty of McNabb over the last 11 years when McNabb was with the Eagles. He is still in the top half of Quarterbacks in the NFL and always creates problems for the Cowboys. Donovan will throw to speedy receiver Santana Moss, and one of the top pass catching tight ends in the NFL, Chris Cooley. Veteran Running Back Clinton Portis will carry the bulk of the ball carrying duties with former Chief Larry Johnson backing him up. The Redskins are not as deep or talented as the McNabb led Eagles in the mid 2000's, but they still have some firepower. Having Mike Shanahan on the sideline certainly won't hurt either.

The biggest story out of Redskins camp all Pre-season has been what they were going to do with Albert Haynesworth. Haynesworth, when motivated, is maybe the best defensive tackle in the league who wrecks havoc in the interior. Haynesworth though has not appeared motivated. He initially requested a trade simply because he didn't agree with Shanahan's defensive strategy. He later gave up when trying to pass a simple endurance test that would allow him to begin practicing. Haynesworth has been notorious in the past for never practicing, but still playing on Sunday. Shanahan, a strict disciplinarian, will simply not allow that to happen. Their has been mass speculation out of Washington as to whether or not he will be allowed to play at all this week. The most recent story is that he will play some, but it is a story worth keeping an eye on. If he plays then he will vastly improve the Skins interior defense.

The Cowboys are superior to the Skins both offensively and defensively. The Cowboys are vastly more talented at WR (even with Roy still starting), and should be able to move the ball consistently. The Cowboys defense is one of the best in the league, and should be able to get the offense good field position. Don't be surprised if this Cowboys D dominates the Redskins offensively.

The biggest question for the Cowboys going into the game is whether or not the 0ffense will show up. On paper this offense should put up 400+ yards, and win this game easily. The film of the Pre-season games on the other hand show that this offense has serious timing issues and may struggle. I am optimistic that Romo and Co. will show up in a big way Sunday and put all the Pre-season concerns to rest. Dez Bryant will be back on the field in the slot giving them another weapon. A full game plan will be installed. It's time for the offense to show up.

This weekend has a clear motto: No more excuses! Cliff Lee: It's time to prove that you are the ace we traded for. Cowboys offense: It's time to show that you are still a high powered machine who can put up 30 points in a game with regularity. My Sunday predictions: Rangers 7-2 win followed by a Cowboys 27-13 romp. No more excuses!

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

The Month Ahead

As we enter September the Rangers find themselves 8 1/2 games up on Oakland in the division. This is easily the highest lead a Ranger team has ever had going into the last month of the season. With a magic number of 23, the Rangers are heavily favored to make the playoffs this year for the first time since 1999. On the surface things look very good for the Rangers, but there are definitely reasons why I am concerned as a Ranger fan.

Now I certainly believe the Rangers will be in the Playoffs. I don't think the problems I see are going to cost us now, but I worry about the way the team is playing going into the playoffs. The Rangers finished the month of August with a 13-15 record and struggled to both score runs and prevent runs throughout the month. Now I am fully aware that Ian Kinsler and Nelson Cruz have been out of the lineup. Losing these 2 guys greatly affected our lineup, but also hurt our overall team defense. Guys like Boggs, Arias, Moreland and Blanco aren't terrible defenders, but they aren't used to playing together, and the communication was lacking. There have been numerous miscues in the field over the last few weeks that were not being made early in the year. This things should be worked out going forward.

Another issue is the Rangers have had a huge problem hitting left-handed pitching. They are 3-8 in the last 11 against lefties. Obviously getting Cruz and Kinsler back in the lineup will help with that, but other players are going to need to step up as well. Last night, just hours before the waiver deadline, the Rangers picked up OF Jeff Francoeur from the Mets for IF Joaquin Arias. Arias had been DFA'd last week, and is not much of a loss at all. The Rangers hope Francoeur will be able to help with the lefty problem. Francoeur is hitting just .237 this year, but is hitting .278/.355/412 vs left-handers this year. He hit .344 last year. If Francoeur can hit a respectable .280 clip against lefties he will be a welcome addition to the team as a spot starter and a pinch hitter. We already know that Borbon can't hit southpaws and a right-handed pinch hitter has been a need for the team all year.

Another thing concerning Ranger fans is the pitching of ace Cliff Lee. Lee has pitched poorly since coming over from Seattle, especially in his last 3-4 starts. Lee was 1-4 in 7 starts with a 6.35 ERA in the month of August. I have still have faith in Cliff Lee. I'm concerned about his poor pitching of late, but I'm by no means writing him off. Last year over a 3 start stretch in late August and September, Lee was 1-2 with an 8.4 ERA. He responded after that with a complete game shutout vs the Nationals. Lee had another bad start giving up 7 runs in 6 innings against Milwaukee on Sept. 25. My point is that Cliff Lee struggled some down the stretch last year as well. His playoff numbers- 5 starts, 4-0, 33-6 k/bb, and a 1.56 ERA. If Lee even gets close to matching those numbers in October, then nobody will even care what his August looked like. I'm still a believer.

Their is still a long way to go in the regular season, but the Rangers are in great position to return to the Playoffs. The Rangers are finally getting healthy, and may have their full lineup together this weekend in Minnesota for the first time in a long while. I will be paying close attention to a few things going forward in September. I will be watching intently every time Lee takes the mound. I will pay close attention to the bullpen situation as it pertains to the playoff roster. Will Michael Kirkman establish himself as a top bullpen option? Will Harrison? What will Derek Holland do with an extended look in the rotation? I believe Holland has the stuff to be a force either in the rotation or the bullpen in October, but he has to prove that.

I'm very excited to watch Ranger baseball in September and October. This is the first time in many years where I am more excited to about the Rangers than the Cowboys season opener. I think it's important for this team to get on a roll going into the playoffs. I am a believer in momentum, and I would love to see this team build some positive momentum into the playoffs. Big-Game Tommy Hunter goes tonight vs KC as the Rangers attempt to take 2 of 3 from the lowly Royals. That sure would be a nice start to the month of September.