Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Cowboys Start Off in a Hole

2 weeks into the NFL season and the Dallas Cowboys are still winless. After a disgusting performance in Washington in Week 1, the Cowboys lost their home opener on Sunday 27-20 to the Chicago Bears. The team's lackluster play to start the season has been very disconcerting to Cowboys fans who expect much better. Their are many issues that have led to the 0-2 start, and everybody has their own opinion. Just listen to the radio. I have watched every snap of the 2010 season thus far, and attended the game Sunday. Through my observations and statistical analysis I have noticed a couple of key issues.

  1. The biggest obvious issue is the absolute lack of a running game. The Cowboys rank 28 out 30 teams in overall team rushing. All off-season there have been massive amounts of hype surrounding the Cowboys "three-headed monster" at running back. This "monster" looks more like Mike Wazowski than Sully. Marion Barber (3.7 ypc), Felix Jones (3.0 ypc), and Tashard Choice (2.7 ypc) have all been ineffective. Barber, while not being great, is the only back who has been close to what was expected of him. Barber is a big, bruising back who isn't going to break any long runs but is expected to loosen up the interior. Jones is expected to be the big-hitter, but he has been easily the most disappointing. There have been a massive outcry for more touches for Felix Jones, but I am one of the few not on the Felix bandwagon. He has done nothing to warrant the starting job, nor has he proven he deserves more touches. People see Barber get 4 yards, and think Jones would have gotten 10 with his quickness. While this may be true, Felix is either not seeing the hole develop, or does not have the power to get through the hole. Either way this is a serious issue. The Cowboys cannot expect to win averaging just under 70 ypg on the ground. My suggestion would be go back to what worked last year. Pound Barber, get Felix on the outside, run Choice off counters and cut backs, and pray for offensive line help.
  2. The 2nd issue I want to look at is the defense's lack of ability to force turnovers. This Dallas defense has forced 0 turnovers while being in the middle of the pack in overall team defense. If you aren't going to be an elite defense in terms of yardage given up, then you have to create turnovers. The Cowboys rank 18th in passing yards against, and 7th in rushing yards against. The defense overall has looked solid, but has given up to many big plays in the passing game. The defense under Wade Phillips has always been a bend-but-don't-break defense. At some point though, for this defense to become elite, it has to force some turnovers. Especially with the offense struggling. Sunday was a great example of how disappointing this defense has been at forcing turnovers. Jay Cutler, a guy who threw 26 Int's and had 4 fumbles last year, completed 72% of his passes and threw 0 Int's and had 0 fumbles. Cutler is a guy who is well-known for having a gunslinger mentality who will throw picks when pressured. On Sunday, Cutler looked like a young Peyton Manning. He looked calm in the pocket, although we did hit him often in the 1st quarter, and threw the ball to the open target every time. I don't even remember a pass that should have been picked off. The lack of ability to pressure the QB, and to create turnovers will plague this team all year if it doesn't fix the problems. 
  3. The third major issue is one that I have attempted to stay away from as best as possible. The Tony Romo issue. I have listened to his critics for years now, and have always been on Tony's side. I do not believe he is the reason for all of our troubles, and I am not intending to single him out as the main issue. However, Romo's play has lacked consistency and contributed to our struggles. Romo has a 66.3 completion percentage and has 656 yards through 2 games. Both of these stats look very good on the surface. If he's my fantasy QB I'm happy. But let's look closer at these numbers.
  • Romo has a total completion percentage of 66.3. Broken down by quarter it looks like this. 1st-76.5%, 2nd-64.3%, 3rd-66.7%, 4th-62.9%. The first quarter is by far the highest completion percentage, but this number is skewed due to the fact that most of his early passes have been short, safe routes. Romo holds the lowest percentage in the 4th quarter, although the difference is not all that significant. This number may be slightly lower due to more long throws as well. 
  • The percentage by quarter didn't show us much so let's look at completion percentage by down. 1st down- 68.9%, 2nd down-72.7%, 3rd down- 47.4%. Here we have a huge difference, and a huge problem. I noticed watching the game that many of Tony's 3rd down throws were very poor. I spoke to a friend of mine about the problem after the game, and decided to look up the numbers. These paint a good picture of why the Cowboys are in the top 10 in overall yardage, but can't seem to put any points on the board. Romo has to improve his 3rd down passing. If you watched the Bears game you may have seen that Tashard Choice feels the same way.
  • The final stat I want to look at for Romo are his percentages as he gets closer to the end zone. From own 1-20: 66.7%, own 21-50: 77.8%, opp 49-20: 55.3%, opp  19-10: 55.6%, opp 9-1: 100%. This gives us another look at why the Cowboys are struggling to score. Romo is having no problem completing passes and moving the ball while on the Cowboys side of the field. As the Cowboys get closer to the end-zone Romo becomes more inaccurate.
These issues combine to cause some serious problems for the Cowboys. The Romo struggles particularly concern me. I am starting to come around to the theory that Romo will not become an elite Quarterback who can lead this team to the championship. When looking closer at his splits I see a vast difference between him and the other elite Quarterbacks around the league. The offensive line and running game problems are just as big, but when you struggle at the most important position on the field things become much more difficult.


 Rangers update
  • Josh Hamilton got news today that he has a "stable fracture" in 2 of his ribs and received a anti-inflammatory shot today for it. It should take 2-3 days for the effect from the shot to take place. Hamilton believes he will be able to play 5 or 6 games on the last home-stand to get ready for the playoffs. This is a huge story to follow as the Rangers need a healthy Josh Hamilton going into the playoffs. Murphy has done an incredible job filling in, but we need both come playoff time.
  • The Rangers magic number is now at 6 games. The Rangers should be able to clinch the division over the weekend during a 4 game series in Oakland. Lee will be on the mound for the opener looking for his 3rd great start in a row. I wrote in my last entry that Lee struggled some last year in Philly before having a few great starts going into the playoffs. History looks to be repeating itself. 
  • Holland may have pitched himself out a playoff spot last night. Holland had very little command last night giving up 4 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in just 3 2/3 innings. Holland has better overall stuff than Tommy Hunter, but Hunter's ability to command his pitches and his consistency this year should earn him the #4 starter spot in the playoffs. 
Also, if you're interested in looking at some of the other top QB's statistical breakdowns here are the links.
Drew Brees
Peyton Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady

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