Friday, July 9, 2010

Cliff Lee is a Ranger!

The Rangers have officially acquired 2008 Cy Young award winner Cliff Lee from the Seattle Mariners. Lee, 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA this year, instantly becomes the best Starting Pitcher the Rangers have had since Nolan Ryan. Lee has been the best pitcher in the American League this year and was named by ESPN the winner of their mid-season Cy-Young award. Lee has been as un-hittable as any pitcher can be this year in Seattle. He currently leads the league in ERA, Whip (.95), CG (5), k/bb ratio (14.83-2nd place is 9.5), opponents OPS and OBP. He's been the most dominant starter this year without a doubt. 

This deal immediately makes the Rangers legitimate contenders to win the American League. Not just the division- the ENTIRE LEAGUE. A playoff rotation of Lee, Lewis, Wilson, and Harden, Hunter, or Holland rivals any team's rotation in the AL. Who has a better trio or foursome than that? Yanks? Redsox? I'll take the Rangers 3 at this point. Everybody saw the incredible way Lee dominated the post-season last year including the Yanks in the Series. Lee is a big game pitcher who has been there before. Don't discount how much that experience can mean to a young team. 

With Lee in the fold, our rotation now matches our lineup and bullpen amongst the tops in the league. ESPN, who is in an everlasting love-knot with the Yankees, admitted today that the Rangers have the best lineup in all of baseball right now. With the best lineup in the league and now one of the top 4, if not top 2, rotations in the American League, its hard not to consider the Rangers one of the favorites to come out of the AL. Obviously bookies, analysts, and even common fans will never admit that the defending champion Yankees aren't the favorites considering that they are, after all, the Yankees. But when you look at the numbers, and break things down, its hard not to believe that the Rangers aren't at least looking eye-to-eye with the Yankees right now. 



Obviously to get an ace pitcher you have to give up something. The Rangers payed a hefty price to get Lee for the rest of this season. The jewel of the deal is Rangers 1B Justin Smoak. Smoak had been hyped coming into the year as a top 10 prospect in all of baseball. Many people see a Justin Morneau type hitter in him. A guy who will consistently hit 310, be extremely patient while being amongst the league leaders in walks, and hitting 20-25 homers per year. Smoak, however, has been pretty awful so far this season. Smoak is hitting a measly .209 with 8 homers and 34 RBI's in 70 games. I believe Smoak is going to be a good player, but I'm not on the bandwagon that he is the next Justin Morneau. I believe he will be a solid, patient hitter. But I think he's a guy who will hit around 280 with 20 homers, and be a very good 1B for a long time. With my point of view in mind, I believe it is the perfect time to deal Smoak. I think Davis can be put up very comparable numbers to Smoak and play great D at 1B. He will strike out more, walk less, and put up bigger power numbers. He was the 1 of our big name prospects (Perez, Scheppers, Holland, Feliz) I was willing to give up to get Lee. Apparently the Rangers front office agreed with me. 

The rest of the package included one of my favorite prospects, Blake Beavan, a hard throwing AA relief pitcher, Josh Lueke, and a possible future utility player who's having a good year at AA, Matt Lawson. Lueke and Lawson are mostly organizational depth for us, and expendable. Beavan is a guy who dominated AA this year, 10-5 with a 2.78 ERA in 17 starts with only 12 walks.  Beavan was a flame-throwing pitcher out of Irving, TX when the Rangers drafted him, but has become a finesse pitcher. He works in the low 90's and wins based on precise location. Beavan ceiling is that of a #3 or #4 pitcher, which is nothing to scoff at, but something the Rangers still have plenty of.  Beavan is a guy that the Rangers may come to regret losing. His style will work very well in spacious Safeco Field, and could put up some very good numbers in his best years. Think Derek Lowe type numbers. 

The Rangers gave up a nice package of players, but it's not a crippling deal. We still have a young 1B with promise, Chris Davis, and we have multiple mid rotation ceiling starters. And a little food for thought for all the Davis haters. Mitch Moreland, hitting .279 with almost a 1:1 BB/K ratio, has always been a 1B before shifting to the OF this year to find a spot for him, is still a very nice backup option. We still have hope at 1B. 

I believe this is a great deal for the Rangers. I'm sure all the Braves fans thought the same thing when they acquired Teixeria for some low level minor leaguers too, but we are in a better position to win than the Braves were that year. We are a playoff team without Lee. We could be a championship team with him. The Braves weren't even a playoff team with Tex. 

I know a lot of people are going to bash the deal since we gave up so much for a rental. Even if Lee does not sign, which is not out of the question no matter what ESPN says ( look at what they said this morning regarding Lee), but if he doesn't we will still net 2 draft picks. A 1st rounder and a supplemental rounder depending on how some things go (it's a complex system). Trading Smoak and Beaven for Lee, a playoff series win or 2, and two 1st round talents doesn't sound as bad now does it?

Maybe I'm getting overly excited about what acquiring Lee could mean for the Rangers this season, but I don't think so. I guarantee their are quite a few upset front offices across the league right now that Cliff Lee is a Ranger (although not as many as their would have been had Lee become a Yankee). The Rangers have become a team to pay attention to across the league. This is going to be a great summer going forward for all Ranger fans. Cliff Lee makes his debut tomorrow night against the lowly Baltimore Orioles. This is going to be fun!

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