Dirk's future

On Saturday the City of Dallas was sent into a mild panic as a story was released stating that Dirk Nowitzki would be opting out of his contract on the last day of June. The Sports Radio channels were filled with people speculating on what this meant. There are reports that Miami wants him, or maybe even Cleveland. Would the Knicks go after him if they can't woo Amare or Bosh? What would this mean for the future of the Dallas Mavericks?

I listened to some of this talk on the radio, and my opinion is the same as ESPN writer Marc Stein. Dirk isn't going anywhere. Dirk opting out is simply a smart decision on the behalf of Dirk to get a new long-term deal that extends until the last few years of his career. I believe the Dallas Mavericks front office knew this would happen all along and are, according to reports, working on an extension with Dirk as I type this.

There are numerous factors that played into Dirk's apparent decision to opt out. However, there are 2 huge issues that made it a no-brainer for Dirk to become an unrestricted free agent.

1. The NBA's collective bargaining agreement expires at the end of next season. One of the major issues that is expected to be changed in the next CBA is the size of the max contracts that are allowed to be given. This year Dirk can receive a max deal from the Mavericks of $96.2 Mil over 4 years. After the new CBA comes out affecting next year's free agent class, this number could fall significantly. Also, if you're wondering why he has to opt out rather than take his $20 mil this year and sign an extension rather than opting out, there's a monetary reason for that too. Because it is an extension starting next year it would be subject to the new CBA agreement. Even if Dirk agrees to a max extension this year, the league could pass the new CBA and force the contract to be reduced next year. This is reason enough for Dirk to opt out of his contract, but it's only 1 of the major issues.
2. Dirk is making a very simple decision in opting out of his contract come July 1st. The Mavericks are hoping to convince Dirk to take a hometown discount that would allow them to have some more money for going after another player. However, if somebody does step in and offer a max deal for Dirk (which by rule would be less than the max offer the Mavs can make), then the Mavs could still put the money on the table and keep Dirk.

There are scenarios that could result in Dirk leaving. Dirk could get a max offer from the Knicks to team up with another max sign such as Lebron James or Dwayne Wade, and might think that is his opportunity to win a championship. I don't really see that happening though. Dirk loves Dallas. He loves Mark Cuban, and he loves the fans here. As long as the Mavs can convince Dirk that they are in position to be one of the top teams in the West, then Dirk will stay. Expect Dirk to wait to sign until late in the summer to see how other things shake out. It make take a while for that to happen, but when it does, expect Dirk to still be wearing a Mavericks jersey.

P.S. Wouldn't it be nice to have the type of depth this Suns team has. It's incredible. I wonder if they'd consider dealing Dragic?

Small Ball

The Texas Rangers have undergone a serious transformation in regards to their offensive game plan. For many years the Rangers have been a team who've had a prolific offense and lived with the long ball. Ron Washington has slowly incorporated the use of the sac bunt, and the idea of moving runners over in order to create runs. This year Washington has fully introduced the Rangers to the small ball side of baseball. The Rangers are sacrifice bunting in every situation where it might be warranted. For the most part the sac bunts were limited to Andrus (8), Borbon(3), and Treanor(3). But recently the sacrifice's have started coming from odd places. Last week Kinsler laid down a bunt with men on 1st and 2nd and no out. In Friday's game vs the Cubs, Hamilton laid down a bunt with a man on 2nd and no outs.

I am in favor of playing the small ball game when the situation calls for it. My problem with this is that I disagree with when the situation is. I agree with the sac bunt in late game situations in tight games to move runners into scoring position. The Rangers have gotten into a habit of bunting in the early innings with our best hitters at the plate. I don't think this makes sense. Too often the Rangers are giving up outs with some of our best hitters at the plate.

Elvis Andrus is the most common player being called on to sacrifice. Elvis currently has 8 sacrifice bunts on the season. Elvis is currently hitting .312 with a .408 OBP. Since 1980, 6 players have had 8 sac bunts while hitting .300 with a .400 OBP. I think it is reasonable to assume Andrus will have 15 sac bunts or more this year which is 3 more than any other player on that list with the exception of Brett Butler's 24 in 1992 (Lonestarball). This is significant because it shows how rare a guy hitting this well is asked to give up his at bat. Elvis is a guy who is more than capable of making something happen with the bat, and has only 6 DP's in his career. He also strikes out a very low rate. Taking the bat out of Elvis's hands this often is just not a good thing for our team in the long run, especially when it's done in the 4th inning of May game. It's going to cost us runs in the long run.

A big inning early in a game can end a game. A 5 run inning early in a game with the way our pitching staff is going right now can finish a game and save the back-end of the bullpen for another day. Sacrificing to get 1 or 2 runs and win a game 4-2 is nice, but once in awhile, I'd like to see Andrus hit the ball and keep the rally going for Young, Kinsler, and Vlady. I certainly don't want to see Hamilton sacrificing with a man on and no outs in the 4th inning ever! The 4th innings is way to early to know how the game is going. We could play for the one run in a 2-1 game that we end up losing 10-4. In the opening innings it would be wiser, in my opinion, to play for the maximum amount of runs.

The strain all these close games will cause on our bullpen is going to be hard to quantify until later in the season. If we can pull out a few more 5 run wins with some big innings than we can keep Neftali, O'day, and Oliver's innings down. Neftali is a young guy who rarely has pitched on back-to-back nights and I worry about him wearing down if he's having to throw 3 out of 4 nights due to our insistence on winning games 5-4. These close games also minimize the room for error our team has. We have to be a near perfect team in the field and in the pen to win enough close games to make the playoffs.

Close games are going to happen. Playing small ball can, without a doubt, win games, and is an extremely valuable tool to have for a playoff team. I would just like to see us stop giving up outs early in games with guys at the plate who are extremely talented hitters. I don't honestly expect this trend to stop, but I hope to see more swinging away early in games, and saving the bunting for later in the game.

Ranger Bullpen Problems

Last night's 7-6 loss to the A's in 13 innings presented an overview of the way the Ranger's bullpen has been in the early going. The bullpen gave up 4 runs on 9 hits, 2 walks, and threw 104 pitches in 6 innings. The Rangers, at 3 games over .500, have been good in most aspects of the game. We've had excellent SP which has always been a huge problem. We've had a couple injuries that have given us problems, Kinsler and Cruz, and we've had some issues at 1B and C, but we've survived those for the most part. The bullpen however is a more pressing issue. We have a 7 man bullpen right now with essentially only 3 guys being trusted to get outs late in ballgames- Feliz, O'day, and Oliver. Some shuffling will happen soon with the plethora of power relievers waiting in OKC, but let's look at the remaining 4 and what they're chances are of remaining on the roster.

• Frank Francisco- Frank isn't going anywhere. He's a guy who has proven he can get big league hitters out and has a closer mentality. He is definitely struggling early, 5.5 BB/9 with a 6.75 era. He has been one of the biggest disappointments this year, but he will be given ample opportunities to refind his stuff. His biggest issue has been lack of velocity which has cause him to get hit harder, 12.9 H/9 and 2 homers in 13 innings, and a lack of control. He looked to be coming around at the end of April with 6 consecutive appearances without a run and only 3 hits, but he's given up 6 hits in his last 3 innings. Frank needs to get it together as he is vital to the back-end of the bullpen being a strength.

• Doug Mathis- Mathis isn't a guy who is going to be in many close games in the 7th, 8th, or 9th innings but he fills a key role in the bullpen as the long man. He actually has been pretty good with a 3.6 era in 15 innings. Homers have hurt him (3 in 15 innings) and he's giving up 10.8 h/9 which isn't great. He's a guy who probably deserves to stay in the bullpen for the time being but he has options left which makes him a fine candidate to make the trip up I-35 to OKC multiple times this year.

• Dustin Nippert- Nippert is a guy was pretty solid last year, but has been relatively ineffective this year. He's walking more, giving up more homers and more hits than last year so far and his ERA shows it- 6.23. He's been used in different roles this year as he's moved from the long man to a 7th inning guy at times. He has an explosive fastball sometimes reaching 98 MPH, but he hasn't shown good command of it. Nippert is out of options and there is a very slim chance they get him through waivers. The Rangers may end up switching Nippert back to the long man slot at the expense of Mathis due to the lack of options.

• Chris Ray- Chris Ray is a guy who has a nice ERA, 3.07, but hasn't looked great. He's been wild, 5 BB/9, and hasn't struck out anybody, 3.8 K/9. Guys are making good contact against him and he's given up mostly flyballs which is dangerous in the Ballpark. Ray is a guy who has yet to earn Wash's trust and doesn't have much of a role. We've used him in the 7th some but we acquired him hoping he would be a 7th/8th inning power reliever who could come in a get a strikeout. He hasn't done that. With 1 option remaining he is an option to be demoted in the near future.

Ray and Mathis are the two who are being looked at the closest for demotions. The decision will be coming soon too. The Rangers have quite a few options for spots and all the guys are hard throwing arms who have been dominating the minors. Scheppers, Beltre, and Ogando are all in AAA (Scheppers and Ogando recently) have proven they need to be challenged more, and are very close to a big league promotion. All 3 throw regularly at 95 or higher, with Ogando and Scheppers regularly hitting 98. Ogando and Scheppers have received a large amount of national attention early on with their astounding performances and won't need long in AAA. Pedro Strop, who had a cup of coffee last September, is another option, as is Matt Harrison. Harrison sat at 96 in the AFL last Fall coming out of the bullpen and was extremely effective. If Holland proves to be an asset in the rotation, Harrison could fill CJ Wilson's void as a hard throwing lefty that we still haven't replaced.

What this really means is that for the first time in a long time the Rangers have numerous options for pitching. If our current bullpen member don't turn their seasons around soon they will quickly become former bullpen members. It's not a huge stretch of the imagination to imagine a bullpen in October like this: Feliz, Scheppers, Ogando, O'day, Oliver, Francisco, Harrison with 5 of 7 throwing 95 or harder. I remember seasons in the early 90's where we couldn't find 1 guy who could touch 95. Help is coming, and it's coming soon!

What's next for the Mavericks

After falling 4-2 to the Spurs in the first round last week, the Mavs have now lost in the first round of the Playoffs 3 of the last 4 years. Obviously there will be many people in the metroplex calling for ownership to "break up" the Mavs, and to trade Dirk in order to start over the rebuilding process. I disagree with this outlook. I mean, the Mavs just became the 4th team in NBA history to have 10 consecutive 50 win seasons. This is a good team that can be great. I think the Mavs are much closer to a championship right now than people think. I think we have a roster full of guys who can contribute to a championship team. We have an athletic big man who can run the floor, grab rebounds, and dunk the ball with authority (when he plays). We have a superstar who can hit big shots and has proven he can take over ball games. We have an All-star caliber player on the wing who can hit shots and penetrate to the basket who can, on occasion, also take over a game. We have a very exciting young guard who proved in Game 6 that he can be a future star in the league who can execute the most difficult offense in basketball to defend- the pick and roll.

However, there are some serious problems for the Mavericks going forward. It stands to reason that if the Mavs do nothing this off-season there is little reason to expect them to get to much better next year. Changes will come this off-season if for no other reason than Cuban has to do something to get this team deep into the post-season where they belong. Cuban , however, has a tendency to put a premium on big name players and coaches (Kidd, Carlisle). For the Mavs to move up in the NBA standings, Cuban needs to let go of this big name mindset and get the people in here who will get the job done. I have a laundry list of issues the Mavs have but I don't have time to put them all here (Terry's shot selection and offensive schemes). Here are 3 major issues that need to be addressed this off-season for the Mavericks to succeed.


1) The Coaching situation. Anybody who watched the majority of the 1st round series knows that this is a huge issue. Carlisle made numerous personal changes that were simply inexplicable. The decision to start Damp the first 4 games. The unexplainable decision to sit Caron Butler the ENTIRE 2nd half in game 3. Never putting Roddy B in the entire series until Game 6, and have him single handedly bring us back before benching him in the 4th quarter while our lead was squandered away. Playing Jason Kidd 40.5 MPG while he did absolutely nothing on the floor.

Carlisle had me scratching my head throughout the post-season. I feel like Carlisle went into the series saying he was going to win or lose with the guys he's had in Dallas for the length of his tenure and that was just how it was going to be. I can't figure out any other reason why guys like Haywood, Caron, Roddy B, Stevenson (arguably our best perimeter defender) and even Najera sat on the bench watching guys like Kidd, Terry, and Damp play the majority of the time. Carlisle is going to be a guy worth watching for the first part of the off-season to see if he stays head coach of the Dallas Mavericks. I would bet that his track record gets him another year in Dallas, but I'm not so sure that's the best decision for us.

2) The Point guard situation is a complete mess. Jason Kidd is not the player he used to be and I am extremely frustrated by the announcers continuing to call him a superstar and referring to him as a key for the Mavericks. We are a better team without him on the floor. Period. He is one of the worst defenders we have, if not the worst. His offensive contributions come from knocking down an occasional 3-pointer, telling Dirk where to stand for a lob pass, and swinging the ball for a shot for Caron or Jet. Any PG in the league can do this. I understand the intangibles Kidd supposedly brings to the table. The leadership and floor general attitude. He can still be a leader playing 15-20 minutes a game and mentoring our young guards, Beaubois and Barea. But the real issue with Kidd is that I don't know how much of a leader he is or how much he even wants to be in Dallas. He skipped the post game interviews after Game 6 ( not a huge deal IMO), but he also skipped the Mavericks post year team meeting and really hasn't been heard from since the game. This isn't a good thing coming from your "leader". I think it is time to try and sell somebody else, Lakers maybe, on Kidd's strong points and get him out of town. The trade to get him here has been a complete disaster since it happened and there's no point in keeping him just because of his name. If he's willing to accept playing 15 mpg and being a mentor then I'm all for keeping him, but I don't see it happening.

3) Finding Fresh blood. The Mavericks were the oldest team in the NBA Playoffs this year. We need some fresh, young legs to get us running again. Roddy B is a great start. If you watched him in Game 6 you saw some of the same stuff I've seen throughout the year. He's a good long rang shooter, and an explosive driver. He can finish at the rim over the big men and make an occasional nice pass. He's more of a scorer at this point than a full PG but I think that's fine. He's a better fit right now for Jason Terry's role than Jason Terry is. We also need to paying a close eye to Free Agency this year. There are some big name FA's available and I guarantee you Cuban will be calling them. I don't think we realistically have a shot at Lebron or Wade, but there are some names we should keep an eye on. Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh (Dallas native), and David Lee are 3 that I covet badly. All 3 would be huge additions to our team. We also do not have our 1st round pick this year, as it was sent to the Nets as part of the Jason Kidd deal.



The Mavs have been extremely frustrating to watch the last couple of years, but we have a core group of guys that are more than capable of making a long post-season run. Our first priority obviously needs to be trying to resign Dirk and Haywood for the next few years before looking elsewhere. Hopefully Cuban and the Mavs will make the correct adjustments in the off-season that will allow us to reach our full capabilities starting with the coaching and our PG situation.

Adjustments

Dallas handily won game 5 last night 103-81. I'm not going to pretend that this was simply due to the Mavericks adjustments. The Spurs rested their starters the entire 4th quarter and gave in quite early last night. That being said, the Mavs dominated that game from tip to finish. The Mavs played like a team with their backs against a wall fighting for their lives-which is what they were. Now they have to do the same thing down in San Antonio.

This series has been infuriating to watch since game 1. The Mavs have played uninspiring basketball combined with infuriating substitution packages. The problems I stated in my opening blog have come to life. The Spurs look like a veteran group that have been lead by Tony Parker who has returned to being unstoppable. We just have nobody who can guard him. Kidd is too slow, and Barea is too small. Then, in typical Spurs fashion, when the vets don't play very well somebody else steps up (George Hill 29 pts in Game 4 win).

There are 3 key substitution issues that have hurt us this series.

1. The biggest problem though, to me, is the substitutions. Roddy Beaubois has yet to play significant minutes in the series. He is a guy who without a doubt in my mind can help us. He has proven this year that when given an opportunity, he can help our basketball team win. The Mavericks are 20-5 this season when he plays 15+ minutes in a game. He has the ability to affect the series and is not being given an opportunity.

2. Jose Juan Barea is a nice player. He's a solid contributor who is fun to watch and can be a spark plug off the bench and give us a boost. But he is NOT a guy who is going to win us playoff games. The benching of Caron Butler in Game 3 in favor of Barea was an absolute travesty. Barea had some nice moments, but after he cooled off he needed to be taken back out, patted on the back, and sat down in favor of Butler. We made a huge deadline deal to get a guy who can win playoff games, and be a legit 2nd option to Dirk. The 2 games we've won Butler is averaging 28.5 PPG on 21.5 shots and 7 FTs. The 3 losses: 12 PPG, 12.3 shots, 2 FTs. We need to get Butler going to win. We did this in Game 5. Let's hope it continues.

3. The Center position. This was adjusted in Game 5. I just want to point out that it hurt us earlier in the series. Haywood looked awesome last night in his first start of the series. Haywood makes Duncan look uncomfortable with the ball. Haywood's length and athleticism are a huge difference from Damp's girth and general slowness. Haywood played 25 minutes to Damp's 19 in Game 4. Duncan was 1-9 with 4 pts. Carlisle obviously noticed this and started Haywood in Game 5. Haywood played 31 minutes. Damp...0. Najera took Damp's minutes and that's what needs to continue. Damp has been terrible all series. Duncan's stat line with Haywood and Najera defending him: 3-9 shooting with 11 points. Duncan was an incredible 5-6 from the line to get him to double digits. Najera brings an added toughness to the lineup that we desperately need. Hopefully this adjustment has been made and will be the norm moving forward in the series.


It will be very interesting to see how Game 6 goes. The Spurs know that they need to put this series away in San Antonio. They have no interest in bringing it back to Dallas. Dallas was right on the verge of winning both games in San Antonio. Maybe with a few adjustments, this time Dallas can steal one and come home with a chance to advance to the 2nd round.

Previewing the NFL Draft

With the draft starting tomorrow night I'm going to take a look at the guys that I think the Cowboys will be keeping an eye on in the first 3 rounds.
Round 1

The cowboys have said that they want to address the OT position in the first round. There are 7 OL that I think are worthy of going in the top 30-Williams, Okung, Davis, Bulaga, Brown, Iupati(G), and Pouncey(C,G). Williams, Okung, Bulaga, Davis will be gone. Brown, Iupati, and Pouncey all will most likely be gone, but they're is a chance that one could fall with Brown being the most likely.

If all of the OL are gone look for the Cowboys to look at taking a Safety.

1st Round Possibilities

• Earl Thomas, Safety - University of Texas: Thomas is a guy who has consistently been linked to the Cowboys, but has also consistently been gone before the Cowboys pick in all mock drafts. Thomas is an extremely fast, ball-hawking safety who had 8 picks and 17 pass deflections last year. He would be a great fit in the Cowboys secondary. I would be very surprised if he falls to us and am guessing the Eagles will take him at 24. Kiper- Broncos (11), McShay- Eagles (24)
  

• Charles Brown, OT- USC: Brown is a very athletic OT who is a former TE at USC. He shows good footwork and knows how to use his hands. His biggest weakness is his weight. He struggles to even reach 300 lbs which is small for a OT. Brown has been going anywhere from the Packers at 23 to outside the first round. I think this is the guy most likely to fall to the Cowboys at 27 of the OT, and is the guy I expect to be drafted by the Cowboys. Kiper- Cowboys (27), McShay- Packers (23)

• Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho- Iupati, a finalist for the Lombardi trophy, is not exactly what the Cowboys are looking for (OT), but may be to big of a talent for the Cowboys to pass up if Brown and Thomas are gone. Iupati allowed 0 sacks this year on a team that was 12th in the country in Passing YPG. Iupati has been mocked to anywhere from Oakland at pick 8 to the Colts at 31. Kiper- Packers (23), McShay- Steelers (18)

• Taylor Mays, Safety- USC: Mays was a Pre-Season top 10 pick but had fallen to a 2nd round pick before the combine. Mays put some extremely impressive numbers at the combine including a 4.43 40 time which was the fastest of any DB. That speed, combined with his 6'3" 230 lb frame, has put him back into the late first round. Mays is a hard hitting safety that will help in run support, but has problems covering WRs and can be a little stiff in the hips. He has been compared by some to former Cowboy 1st round pick, Roy Williams. He doesn't fit the Cowboys need for a ball-hawking safety but he still has the potential to be a top notch NFL Safety. Kiper- Vikings (30), McShay- Cowboys (27)
  

2nd Round Possibilities

What the Cowboys do here will hinge a lot on what happens in Round 1. A Safety and an OL will still be the top priorities here.

• Bruce Campbell, OT- Maryland: He was linked to the Cowboys in the 1st round in the early mocks after his impressive combine workouts, but has fallen into the 2nd round since. Campbell is considered the most athletic OL in the draft barely edging out Brown. If he is available in the 2nd round and we don't draft an OL in the first, we will take Campbell. McShay- Cowboys (59)

• Dexter McCluster, Rb/WR- Mississippi: An all-around player at Ole Miss he reminds me of Felix Jones in a lot of ways. He was the Wildcat QB, the #2 WR, and their leading runner accounting for 1,716 yards from scrimmage. He would be a great addition to the offense but I don't know that he fits a need at all. McShay- Jets (61)

• Nate Allen, Safety- USF: Allen is a ball-hawking safety in the Earl Thomas mold who I would love to see the Cowboys draft. He's projected to go early to mid first round, and I don't expect him to fall here. Allen has good size (6'1") and has great instincts and range. He isn't a huge hitter, and doesn't have the pure speed that Mays or Thomas possess. If we take an OL in the first, or if Mays and Thomas are gone in the first, don't be surprised if we make a trade to get Allen. McShay- Ravens (57)

• Lamarr Houston, DT- Texas: A former Running Back, Thomas is very athletic and quick for a DT. He will most likely be gone at this point as well, but has been linked to the Cowboys. The Cowboys are looking for a DT who can plug the gap and give Ratliff a rest. McShay- Rams (33)

Others: Brian Price-DT, John Jerry-OG, Navarro Brown-OLB, Major Wright-S, Gene Atkins-DT.

3rd Round Possibilities

This is very difficult to predict so I'll just give a few names I think the Cowboys will look at.

• Jordan Shipley, WR- Texas: Record setting WR was the favorite target of All-American QB Colt McCoy. He is perfectly suited for the slot position in the NFL and would be a great addition to the Cowboys suspect WR corps. Crayton is not the long-term answer in the slot and Shipley should be ready to play immediately. I've seen him pegged by a few publications as a 3rd round pick, but others (McShay) have him as a 4th rounder. McShay- Cowboys (125)

• T.J. Ward, Safety- Oregon: A solid safety who is better at coming up and hitting rather than coverage. Had only 1 INT last year, and is not considered a great coverage guy. Will immediately help on special teams, and may develop into an above-average Safety. McShay- Cowboys (90)

• Chad Jones, Safety, LSU: Played in all 40 games of his career at LSU. Possesses above-average speed, and, at 6'2", is a bigger Safety. He's considered above-average at all aspects of the Safety position: Run support, ball skills, coverage skills, instincts, closing burst. He was also a baseball player at LSU, and played on special teams at LSU. McShay- Browns (92)

• Arthur Jones, DT- Syracuse: A huge 300 lb DT, Jones is an excellent, run-stuffing, gap-filling DT. He is considered exceptionally tough and extremely strong. His biggest weakness is he is not much of a pass rusher limiting him mostly to 1st and 2nd downs and short yardage plays. McShay- Vikings (93)

Others: D'Anthony Smith-DT, Perrish Cox-CB, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah-CB/S, Javier Arenas-CB, Torrell Troup-DT, Rashad Jones-S, Donald Butler-LB (personal favorite), Selvish Capers-OL, Riley Cooper-WR.



Based on the research I've done into the draft these are the guys that I think are most likely to be future Cowboys. Safety, OL, DT, WR, and LB are the areas that need to be addressed the most. If things fall right we could possibly grab a couple of guys who can come in and help quickly. After the draft this weekend I'll recap the picks and see how my projections worked out.

Projections:
1st- Charles Brown, OT-USC
2nd- Nate Allen, S-USF
3rd- Arthur Jones, DT-Syracuse
4th- Jordan Shipley, WR-Texas

NBA Playoffs

Alright guys, this is my first blog entry for my new blog, The Big "D"etails. My friends and girlfriend have convinced me that starting this Sports blog would be a great way for me to express my views on all things sports. I hope you enjoy, and continue coming back for more.



NBA Playoffs

The NBA Playoffs kicked off Saturday, starting the extremely long process of crowning a new NBA champion. The Mavs are matched up with their old in-state rivals from San Antonio. These teams have matched up for some extremely exciting playoff series over the last decade including the 7 game thriller in '06. This year's match-up doesn't have the same buzz to it with it being a first round 7-2 match-up rather than a Conference Finals. However, there is still plenty of reasons to believe it will be a competitive series.

- Any series with names like Dirk, Kidd, Caron, Duncan, Manu, and Tony Parker will be an interesting series.

- The Rivalry- This series has become one of the best rivalries over the past decade having met 4 times in the Playoffs since 2001.

- Can the Mavs remember how to be a good playoff team? Since their 2-0 start to the Finals in '06 the Mavs are a paltry 8-17 in the Playoffs, with the only series win coming last year against the Spurs.

Why I think the Mavs will win in 6

- The Mavs are too athletic this year. The trade acquisitions of Butler, Haywood, and even Stevenson have improved the Mavs athleticism, defense, and toughness. The Spurs are a veteran team who don't have the athletes on the wing or in the post who can match Butler, Marion, and Haywood.

- The Spurs simply can't stop Dirk. I'm not suggesting Dirk will shot 12-14 (86%) from the floor every game, but I'm willing to bet he shoots over 50% the rest of the series. The Spurs are attempting to guard Dirk with Antonio McDyess and Matt Bonner. Neither has the size or athleticism to guard Dirk. The combined for 8 fouls which led the way to Dirk's 12 free throws last night. Expect that to continue throughout the series.

- Caron Butler. The Spurs don't have a guy with the athleticism or defensive ability to consistently stop Butler. Caron is going to be able to get his shot whenever he wants all series. The threat of a legitimate 2nd scoring option make the Mavs so much more dangerous than in years past.

Why the Mavs could lose the series.

- The Mavs lineups frustrate me greatly, and it could come back to bite us. Roddy Beaubois had another DNP last night. Roddy is one of our best wing scorers and could really pick up the scoring slack when Dirk is out of the game. Beaubois averaged 14.5 PPG on 20 MPG during the month of February while Terry was hurt, including a 40 point explosion against Golden State. The scoring average is a little skewed still with Beaubois playing under 10 minutes 4 games. I'm not saying Terry shouldn't see the floor, but when he's 2-9 on the game I think it's worth our while to see how Roddy B is feeling.

- The Spurs are still a veteran team who know how to win in the Playoffs. Since the big trio of Parker, Duncan, and Ginobli were united in 2001-2002 the Spurs are an incredible 75-47 (.61 winning percentage). They have been here before and know what it takes to get it done.


I think the Mavs are the clear favorite this series, as they should be as the #2 seed. I think this series ends in 6, although I wouldn't be surprised to see it end in 5 back in Dallas.

The Rest of the Playoffs

I'm going to take a quick shot at making my picks throughout the playoffs.

West

Lakers over Thunder in 6- Too much Kobe and Pau. The Thunder are a young improving too, but they aren't ready to knock off the Defending champs.

Nuggets over Jazz in 6- Boozer is hurt. Okur is hurt. The Jazz are in trouble. They can't keep up the scoring with one of highest-scoring teams in the NBA.

Suns over Blazers in 7- The Blazers made a statement last night that they can win without Roy but I think the Suns will regain their composure and pull it out in 7.

Mavs over Spurs in 6.


Lakers over Nuggets in 7- Kobe and Carmelo are going to put on an absolute show all series long, but Pau, Bynum, and Lamar prove that it takes more than one superstar to win in the Playoffs.

Mavs over Suns in 7- The Dirk-Nash Playoff reunion will be an exciting affair with a lot of high scoring close games, but the Mavs will pull it out behind big games from Dirk.


Mavs over Lakers in 7- Mavs get to their 2nd NBA finals with a game 7 win in LA. The Mavs have the wings to run at Kobe all night long. The length inside of Haywood and Damp can keep Bynum and Pau in check, and the Lakers bench is non existent. The Mavs prevail behind some stingy defensive efforts.


East

Cavs over Bulls in 4- Lebron

Celtics over Heat in 7. The Celtics are old and decling but they have enough to finish off DWade and CO. at home.

Hawks over Bucks in 6- The Bucks are very underrated with rookie PG Brandon Jennings leading the way, but Joe and Josh lead the Hawks to the series win.

Magic over Bobcats in 5- The magic are too big, athletic, and good for the Bobcats. Charlotte's first playoff series ends quickly.


Cavs over Celtics in 6- Lebron.

Hawks over Magin in 6- Hawks declare themselves among the elite teams in the NBA with a win over the Magic in 6 games. Joe Johnson solidifies his superstar status and Josh Smith winds up on the Top 10 5 times.


Cavs over Hawks in 6- Lebron again is to much for anybody to stop and the Hawks simply can't stop him. More competitive though than many people will think.


Finals

As much as I hate to admit it, I'm taking the Cavs in 7 over the Mavs. It will be extremely difficult to knock of the Cavs in Cleveland. Lebron is the best player in the league and the Mavs will be fatigued after series wins over the Spurs, Suns, and Lakers. Lebron wins his first championship.