Dirk's future

On Saturday the City of Dallas was sent into a mild panic as a story was released stating that Dirk Nowitzki would be opting out of his contract on the last day of June. The Sports Radio channels were filled with people speculating on what this meant. There are reports that Miami wants him, or maybe even Cleveland. Would the Knicks go after him if they can't woo Amare or Bosh? What would this mean for the future of the Dallas Mavericks?

I listened to some of this talk on the radio, and my opinion is the same as ESPN writer Marc Stein. Dirk isn't going anywhere. Dirk opting out is simply a smart decision on the behalf of Dirk to get a new long-term deal that extends until the last few years of his career. I believe the Dallas Mavericks front office knew this would happen all along and are, according to reports, working on an extension with Dirk as I type this.

There are numerous factors that played into Dirk's apparent decision to opt out. However, there are 2 huge issues that made it a no-brainer for Dirk to become an unrestricted free agent.

1. The NBA's collective bargaining agreement expires at the end of next season. One of the major issues that is expected to be changed in the next CBA is the size of the max contracts that are allowed to be given. This year Dirk can receive a max deal from the Mavericks of $96.2 Mil over 4 years. After the new CBA comes out affecting next year's free agent class, this number could fall significantly. Also, if you're wondering why he has to opt out rather than take his $20 mil this year and sign an extension rather than opting out, there's a monetary reason for that too. Because it is an extension starting next year it would be subject to the new CBA agreement. Even if Dirk agrees to a max extension this year, the league could pass the new CBA and force the contract to be reduced next year. This is reason enough for Dirk to opt out of his contract, but it's only 1 of the major issues.
2. Dirk is making a very simple decision in opting out of his contract come July 1st. The Mavericks are hoping to convince Dirk to take a hometown discount that would allow them to have some more money for going after another player. However, if somebody does step in and offer a max deal for Dirk (which by rule would be less than the max offer the Mavs can make), then the Mavs could still put the money on the table and keep Dirk.

There are scenarios that could result in Dirk leaving. Dirk could get a max offer from the Knicks to team up with another max sign such as Lebron James or Dwayne Wade, and might think that is his opportunity to win a championship. I don't really see that happening though. Dirk loves Dallas. He loves Mark Cuban, and he loves the fans here. As long as the Mavs can convince Dirk that they are in position to be one of the top teams in the West, then Dirk will stay. Expect Dirk to wait to sign until late in the summer to see how other things shake out. It make take a while for that to happen, but when it does, expect Dirk to still be wearing a Mavericks jersey.

P.S. Wouldn't it be nice to have the type of depth this Suns team has. It's incredible. I wonder if they'd consider dealing Dragic?